Three-Way Dead Heat in CA-40 House Battleground

 

MISSION VIEJO, CA – Esther Kim-Varet, Democratic frontrunner to flip California’s 40th Congressional District, today released a new Tulchin Research poll of likely June 2026 primary voters showing a three-way dead heat for the top two general election spots: Republican Ken Calvert at 24%, Republican Young Kim at 22%, and Kim-Varet at 20%, all three candidates statistically tied within the survey’s ±4.37% margin of error.

Kim-Varet has more than doubled her support since January and now leads every other Democrat in the race by a wide margin. Kim-Varet’s closest Democratic rival stagnates at 6% with no path to gain share due to their underfunded campaign. Meanwhile, Esther Kim-Varet’s campaign continues to accelerate as it rapidly expands paid and earned media channels to reach CA40 voters, while activating its base of more than 5,000 in-district donors and volunteers.

Unique “Sudden Death” Race: Open Primary With Two Incumbents

California’s top-two primary system advances the two highest finishers, regardless of party, to the November general election. With Calvert, Kim, and Kim-Varet locked in a statistical tie, the next 26 days will decide which two candidates make it to November and which one is eliminated. If Esther Kim-Varet does not finish in the top two, the Democratic Party’s only chance to flip CA-40 ends on June 2.

In a major feature story today, The New York Times highlighted the dynamics and stakes of this unprecedented race, extensively quoting Kim-Varet.

Kim-Varet Has More Than Doubled Her Support

Since Tulchin’s January benchmark survey, and following her campaign’s $500K+ of paid media and mail spending from April 15 through May 10, Kim-Varet has surged from 9% to 20% among all likely primary voters, more than doubling her support, while every other Democrat in the field has faded. Republicans Calvert and Young Kim have remained essentially flat, allowing Kim-Varet to close the gap and move into striking distance of the top two.

Democrats Consolidating Behind Kim-Varet

The clearest signal in the poll is the Democratic consolidation behind Kim-Varet. Among Democratic primary voters, she has more than doubled her support, surging from 20% to 42%, a +22 point jump in four months. Her closest Democratic rival has collapsed from 28% to 12%. With roughly one-third of Democrats still undecided, Kim-Varet has clear room to expand even further.

Tulchin Research Track Record of Beating Young Kim

Tulchin Research has foiled Young Kim’s prior campaigns across multiple cycles. Tulchin polled the 2018 race in California’s 39th District for Rep. Gil Cisneros, who defeated Young Kim that November. Tulchin also polled the 2016 California AD 65 race against Young Kim for Sharon Quirk-Silva, who likewise prevailed. Both Cisneros and Quirk-Silva have endorsed Kim-Varet (along with Reps. Jasmine Crockett, Laura Friedman, Grace Meng, and Marilyn Strickland).

Kim-Varet’s Communications Are Working, Momentum Is Accelerating

As more voters have learned about Esther, her favorability has climbed from 10% to 22% overall, and from a +9 net favorable rating among Democrats to +33 net favorable. Among all likely primary voters who have heard about Esther recently, 54% say what they heard made them feel more favorable, compared to 26% who say it made them feel less favorable, a +28 net positive reaction. With a majority of voters yet to be reached, Kim-Varet has significant room to grow further as her communications scale. Esther is the only challenger candidate with the campaign funding to message directly to voters with paid media and mail, having outraised the rest of the combined challenger field by more than 10X.

“The GOP is warning its voters at both national and local levels that I’m coming for this seat, and they’re not wrong,” said Esther Kim-Varet. “Two corrupt career Republicans are burning $10 million in a cage match fight over which one is Trumpiest. The voters of CA-40 are not buying their BS anymore. Tulchin’s new poll shows that my campaign has the only viable path for a Democrat to flip this district. If I don’t make the top two on June 2nd, our opportunity to retire these corrupt incumbents disappears. Tulchin’s prior poll showed me tied with either of them in the general election. I’m calling on every voter, every donor, and every volunteer tired of watching Calvert and Kim sell out California to step up now and join my fight.”

Methodology: From April 30 to May 4, 2026, Tulchin Research surveyed 500 likely June 2026 primary voters in California’s 40th Congressional District. The poll was conducted in English and Spanish using live professional interviewers calling both landlines and cell phones, as well as collecting data online. Margin of error: ±4.38%.

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California’s newly drawn 40th Congressional District, spanning portions of Riverside County and Orange County, is one of the most consequential U.S. House district battlegrounds in the nation. CA-40 includes the cities of Rancho Santa Margarita, Murrieta, Menifee, Lake Elsinore, Wildomar and Canyon Lake as well as parts of Mission Viejo, Orange, Anaheim and Corona.

First-time candidate Esther Kim-Varet has raised over $2.9 million to date, powered by over 60,000 individual small dollar contributions from across the nation, with no corporate or foreign PAC money whatsoever. Esther is not a politician. She is a working mom of two young kids, running for Congress to restore the American Dream for all. In Congress, Esther will combat corruption, defend democracy, and fight for the middle class, small businesses, public education, and healthcare access.