Let’s Not Give Up a Fight for CA40 Even if Redistricting Goes Through

I really enjoy Jeff Perlman’s The TruthOC, but one of his columns this week makes me think he’s forgotten his sportswriter roots.  How many times have we seen an athletic contest in any sport where an underdog defeats an opponent –on paper — that has more talent, more experience and a double digit betting line?

Perlman’s column advising Democrats to abandon CA-40 if Prop 50 passes next month is a surrender Democrats should not subscribe to at all.  Yes, the electorate in CA40 becomes more Republican, but he ignores the 22 percent of voters who are independent that can truly decide this race.  With other Orange County seats getting more blue, there ought be to some resources diverted from these safer seats to pour into the campaign of whichever Democrat emerges to face off against Rep. Young Kim in November 2026.

To start off, Young Kim is awful.  She’s a reliable Trump vote, she was one of the votes for the “Big Beautiful Bill” which hurts CA40 residents, she ignores the lack of due process and outright terrorism inflected by ICE, and she’s been an ally to Trump in the House to keep the Epstein files secret.

But there’s more:

• CA-40, represented by Republican Young Kim, was carried by Joe Biden in 2020, albeit narrowly. That signals it’s not a deep red district — rather, it’s purple. A reddish shade of purple, but purple nonetheless.  In 2024, Democrat Joe Kerr cut the gap between Kim and Democrats considerably with very little Party support.

• In the 2022 and 2024 cycles, it was rated as “Lean Republican” or “Toss-Up” by Cook Political Report and others. In a good Democratic turnout year, and looking back to 2018 to the Blue Wave, it’s winnable again.

• The new district demographics — particularly among Latino, Asian-American, and suburban women voters — are favorable to Democrats.  California voters really hate the way ICE has conducted themselves just scooping up brown people without a warrant.  The District is also in a fire zone which the Trump administration has cut services to FEMA.  Good luck getting GOP votes if there’s a huge fire disaster.  Young Kim says nothing about either.  CA40 voters are a lot more diverse, less wealthy and more impacted by cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, SNAP, Housing programs and education programs.  Young Kim has to defend this; Democrats don’t.

• Voters disillusioned with the national GOP’s extremism or ethical lapses could be more open to flipping the seat — especially suburban moderates and independents

• Even if Democrats don’t win the seat outright, competing in CA-40 forces the GOP to spend money defending it. YoungKim spent millions to beat Joe Kerr in 2024, much more than she spent in 2022; if Democrats don’t surrender, she’ll need to spend millions again to hold the seat.

• Abandoning CA40 signals a lack of investment in Orange County–area Democratic infrastructure. It hurts national fundraising for local elections.  Do you reall want to make it easy for Young Kim next fall? I sure as hell don’t.

• Maintaining competitive pressure keeps local volunteers engaged, local Democratic clubs active, and builds candidate pipelines for city councils, school boards, and future congressional bids.  These voters and volunteers will feel abandoned by their party and we simply can’t afford that.

• If we surrender CA40, Republican Trumper narratives are unchallenged and the district will be even harder to flip in the future.

While TheTruthOC may have surrendered here, I’m not.  Nor should any Democrat running for Congress against Young Kim.  Keep protesting her lack of Town halls.  Keep calling her office to complain about her reliable record supporting Trump.  Keep pressure on her silence when it comes to due process for immigrants in her district.

History — in politics and sports — is loaded with examples of a victor emerging against all odds.  Its not time to make elections easier for Young Kim.  It’s about doing the work to win.  Remember when Orange County was considered a Red County, and the only thnig Demcorats could cling to was Rep. Loretta Sanchez?  So do I.  And through hard work, voter registration drives, fundraising and luck, this county  isn’t deep red anymore.  We’ve beated the odds before and we can beat them again.