Message to Lucille- You Feeling Lucky?

So Lucille Kring has decided to forego either a second consecutive term on the Anaheim City Council or a run for Anaheim Mayor in order to pursue a quixotic run against Lou Correa for State Senate.  My question to Lucille is are you feeling lucky, because the odds are against you in so many ways, it’s not even funny. If Curt Pringle was any friend of yours, he would have told you not to do it. That is not very nice of him. What kind of a friend encourages you to be a sacrificial lamb. So let’s break down just how ugly of a loss this is going to be.

Already other top tier challengers have taken a pass at this race, even with the offer of hundreds of thousands of dollars. The fact that it took this long for Senate Republicans to woo a candidate is a testament to the popularity of Correa, despite what some imaginary poll that no one ever sees says. So first lets take a look at the registration numbers.

Since Correa was elected in 2006, there has been a large swing in voter registration in favor of the Democrats. The numbers at close of registration were:

During his first term, that has since changed to the following:

Democrats have increased their registration edge by more than 10 points. I don’t see the Republicans making up ground this year and by the way, by giving us an opponent, Kring give the Senate Dems an excuse to increase voter registration in this area. Thanks Lucille. The change in registration was the result of a major citizenship drive by Correa(and those folks are going to remember the man who helped them become US Citizens) and general unpopularity of the Republican, who despite Democrats having a downturn, the GOP continues to remain unpopular.

Latinos also make up the largest voting bloc of voters in pure NUMBERS, not turnout percentage. They were 35% of the voters in the 2006 election and will likely be close to 40% of the voters in the 2010 election. Sure Vietnamese turnout in greater numbers, but remember 40% of 100,000 is still greater than 60% of 50,000.  Despite those numbers, Correa has made inroads in both communities and Kring may get a sizable number of Vietnamese, but Correa is likely going to get upwards of 80% of Latino vote due to his unwavering support for immigrants, education and fighting for the working class. This includes a sizable area of Anaheim where Lucille has done poorly in the past anyways. Her strength was in the hills and guess what, THEY CAN’T VOTE FOR HER.

She is likely going to get support from teabaggers, who are known for their anti-Latino rhetoric. Does she go after the largest voting bloc in the district, or does she make a bunch of teabaggers happy, even though half of them don’t even live in the district. Most of these Republicans are caught between a rock and a hard place.

Next let’s talk about money. It’s going to take money for Kring to take out an entrenched Democratic incumbent in a Democratic leaning district. So where is she going to get her money. The Senate Republicans definitely don’t have too much of it. Even so, they already have a full plate in 2010. They have to play defense in the 12th(Denham) and 15th should Maldonado get confirmed. They supposedly also want to go after the 16th(Florez-D) as well. That is a lot of places to spread the money around already. So I can’t imagine Kring getting a whole lot there.

I guess Kring can count on those pro-business organizations to give her money. Oh what’s that, they have already endorsed Lou Correa. To quote Homer Simpson, “D’OH!” Orange County Business Council has endorsed him and he has been praised for his bi-partisan approach to trying to get us out of this recession and get people back to work. Cal Chamber is likely going to endorse Correa, so there goes that money and I.E. support for Kring.

The most telling reason she was wooed actually come in the post where Matt Cunningham crows about her entry into the race. The line “A collateral winner here is former Anaheim Councilman Tom Tait, who is running for mayor and has piled up a mass of endorsements and campaign dollars. This obviates an election battle with Kring and presumably clears a path to the mayorship for Tait”, says it all. Doesn’t Kring get it, this wasn’t about taking out Correa at all, this was about clearing the field for Tait to be coronated Mayor. Lucille Kring, YOU GOT BAMBOOZLED. It isn’t too late Kring. You will lose to Correa, you may have a shot against Tait. Kenny Rogers had some words of wisdom in the song “The Gambler.” I advise you listen to them. Because this is the time when you need to walk away and know when to run.