As promised, I’m starting a discussion today on how to campaign & win in OC’s Congressional Districts. And today, we’re beginning with the 40th. Where should we start?
Unfortunately, Democrat Christina Avalos only managed to earn 37.5% of the vote against Republican incumbent Ed Royce. However, the Presidential vote was much closer between McCain and Obama. So what should we do to make a race in the 40th in 2010?
Who should we recruit to run? What should be our plan for the ground game? What message should we use?
I want to hear your ideas on what our plan should be in CA-40. How do we beat Ed Royce? Please share your ideas for victory here.
Andrew,
First off we should get a nominee who is stronger and a better campaigner than our last two nominees Florice and Christina.
Someone who either has money or can raise it as Ed Royce’s war chest is immense. The district while leaning Republican is getting more and more Democratic. The western part of Stanton and Buena Park plus pockets of Orange need to be worked early for voter reg. There are many apartments in the district that have not been worked. If the canidate could term up using the union voter reg program as a catalyst as well as work with Tom Daly’s Supervisor’s race as well as Karen Haluza’s second run in Fullerton plus any nascent Democratic City Council Race in Anaheim that could work the hills. But a strong ground game would be essential. Ed Royce will want to help his friend Van in a Senate Race against Lou Correa but Lou could be another resource for the 40 th race as well in the wester part of the 34th.
If you really want to have a shot in the 40th, you are going to need to start campaigning now. While I’m not extremely political, I live in the 40th, and I know who Ed Royce is. I get mail from him, and hear of events that he is attending or hosting around town.
It is extremely difficult to overcome that kind of familiarity. Politics aside, if I feel like I know the guy, I’m not going to vote against him until he gets caught with the proverbial dead hooker or live boy.
Recruit Joe Dunn to run against dirty Gary.
Tom D, is being courted by the unions to run for Norby seat.
Given this, the unions will work on a voter registration project and this in turn will help any person running against Ed.
The Plan, 40th Resident, & Jason- Thanks for the lowdown! I’m glad to hear input from locals on what’s happening up north. I certainly agree that we should take advantage of the positive momentum in other area campaigns, like Tom Daly’s likely 2010 Supervisorial campaign. Also, I agree that we should enlist our allies, like the local unions & grassroots progressive groups, in getting people on the ground to do the legwork to win here. It may be tough, but it’s not impossible to win here.
duplojohn-
Do you mean Royce? Or are you actually talking about Miller in the 42nd? If it’s the latter, then stay tuned for later this week when we go in depth on the 42nd.
#1: stop worrying about winning CD40 in two years. You should first worry about winning AD 67 (Silva), or AD 72 (Duvall) in two years.
#2 stop worrying about winning any of those ADs in two years. You should first worry about getting a Democratic majority on the city councils of Los Alamitos, Cypress, Stanton, Buena Park, Fullerton, Placentia, Anaheim or Orange.
Once you get #2 done, and then #1 done, then focus on CD40.
And guess what type of advise I’ll give you for the remaining CDs.