Since my office is in Old Town Tustin, I run into council member Lee Fink often. I came across his election updates on Facebook and rather than write this myself, he’s graciously agreed to let me republish him.
Here is the likely the final #ThinkFink update for the primary. First, a couple of corrections:
1) Locally, I said that AD68 was a called race. That was meant for David Penaloza, and I did not give enough credit to Jessie Lopez. But there it is. Both Democrats advance to November.
2) LA Mayor’s race, I said Bass would likely face Pratt. No. She will face fellow Democrat Nithya Raman in November. Hold on to your hats!
In both races, we underestimated both the turnout (which turns out to be *very* good for a midterm primary) and how progressive those late ballots were. In both races, it was a progressive that overcame fairly sizable GOP leads for the second spot. Notably, in Los Angeles, these late-counted (and therefore, generally late-cast) votes were from young people.
Statewide, I think we saw the same pattern. But the state as a whole is not as Democratic and progressive as LA and Santa Ana, and thus Steyer did not catch up.
It’s important to pay attention to these late, progressive, and young votes.
Otherwise, the races are all now set. Tom Steyer has conceded and endorsed Xavier Becerra, now the overwhelming favorite to be the first Latino elected Governor of California.
In OC Board of Supervisors, Katrina Foley will take the lead, probably after the next ballot drop tomorrow. She will not get to 50%+1 in the primary, but heads to November as a favorite in another tough race that she is up for.
In D4, Connor Traut has taken the lead and will be the favorites in November against Tim Shaw. Former Democrat-turned-Independent and Lincoln Club-endorsed candidate Fred Jung looks to finish last in that race.
Ada Briceno conceded in the AD67 race. Mark Pulido is the heavy favorite in November.
Tom Umberg should advance in the little-known or understood Board of Equalization race
This is a great write up. I’m disappointed that Ada lost but thank goodness Fred Jung won’t be stinking up the OC Board of Supervisors!!!