I’m told there are still efforts to convince Young Kim to try and challenge either Dave Min or Derek Tran to stay in Congress, or encourage President Trump to offer Kim an ambassadorship in order to clear the field for Rep. Ken Calvert. So to demonstrate her viability, Kim’s campaign team has released a poll showing that voters prefer her to Calvert. The unintended news revealed that Joe Kerr, who cut deeply into Kim’s vote in 2024 compared to 2022, leads the Democratic field. The survey, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, shows Kerr and Calvert are tied for the number two spot.
Esther Kim-Varet, who released her own poll that omitted Kerr, comes in at 13% with undecided at 19%. No mention of Santa Ana attorney Lisa Ramirez in the Kim poll.
As the Democratic field narrows to three candidates, Kerr has locked up the Labor Union endorsements (and the IE money that comes with it), Kim-Varet has the most cash on hand (and both she and Kerr live in the district as Calvert and Young Kim don’t), and Ramirez doesn’t make a dent.
I’ve been saying for months, this district is winnable by a Democrat who can pull non-Trump supporting Republican voters, Independents, and Moderate Democrats.
Not surprising at all. This is what happens when voters actually get to know the candidates.
Everyone who wants to flip this seat should be paying attention to this poll. In a Top Two system the math is real, and splitting the Dem vote could hand us a Kim-Calvert Top Two.
Kerr is already leading the Democratic field and has the coalition, experience, and credibility to make the Top Two and win in November. If Dems are serious about flipping CA-40, we should be uniting behind the candidate who’s already positioned to get it done.
At this stage, any poll mostly measures name ID. Kerr has been on the ballot in this area COUNTLESS times for many offices. It is not surprising that he polls high at this point. But go to https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/CA/40/2026/ where you can compare the candidates finance reports. Kerr is behind 4 other Democrats in this race, including one who has dropped out. Even Dr. Tiffanie Tate, who has raised far less than Kerr, has more than 2.5 times as much cash on hand. Kerr will not have the recources to compete in a primary.
Countless? That’s not true. And as far as resources go, just wait to see what union IE spending goes.
Bogus criteria.
If money were a determining factor. CA would have had Governors named Checchi, Simon, and Whitman.
While money is not insignificant. It is not the only determining factor.
In many special elections since Trump took office. The Dems have flipped 27 state legislative seats from red to blue. In the case of TX SD09. The Dem was outspent by millions. The Dem candidate was a moderate white male and former union leader. In a district with significant Latino and union households. In a red leaning district.
Sound familiar? Look up the demographics of CA40. Almost identical in its composition.
Check out this commentary. It explains why money is not the factor one would like to believe it is in a wave election year.
Especially if the candidate is unknown.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2026/Items/Feb05-7.html
Money isn’t enough to save incumbents in a wave election.
https://rollcall.com/2026/02/03/midterm-wave-election-fundraising-incumbents-challengers/
Looks to me like Team Kerr is not appealing to potential supporters.
The product they attempt to peddle is simply not a good one.
Thanks for helping to point out that donors have many other better places to invest.
Your post makes no sense.
The poll released by YK shows that Kerr is appealing to someone.
It literally puts him in a three way tie.
Certainly better than Esther Kim. Despite her resources and massive expenditures.
It looks to me like you don’t follow or know much about what the Kerr camp is doing
What is Kerr camp doing? I see no tangible results. I am told that a couple of retired firemen are on regular conference calls to expensive DC consultants to have their massive egos stroked.
You need to add a word to your handle here: you’re one that knows shit
Interesting comment. Given that Kerr does not list any firefighter organizations as endorsements.
Dan has you pegged.
I am not understanding how the lack of firefighter organization endorsements counters any of my comments. Please explain it to me like I was a child.
And thanks for pointing that out. I had not noticed them missing on his list. Are you saying they too are finally wising up after supporting Joe in his many campaigns?
You are a child; endorsements happen over the course of campaigns and are timed.
You wrote;
“I am not understanding how the lack of firefighter organization endorsements counters any of my comments. Please explain it to me like I was a child.”
Earlier you wrote;
“I am told that a couple of retired firemen are on regular conference calls to expensive DC consultants to have their massive egos stroked.”
Who are these retired firefighters on regular conference calls to expensive DC consultants?
You make an inane comment. With zero proof or substance.
What WE do know. Is that one of the leading GOP candidates has published a poll showing Kerr in a three way tie.
Do you dispute that? Is YK spreading misinformation?
With all the monies Esther Kim has raised and spent. Shouldn’t she be polling higher?
Do you believe a district that is predominantly working class with over 100,000 union households is going to support a former union leader? Or an art dealer who moved here from LA a little over a year ago?
The question that begs to be asked of Esther Kim.
Why did you move to run for congress? Why isn’t she running in Hancock Park against Rep. Laura Friedman?
If money were the only determining factor in a political race.
CA would have had governors named; Checchi, Riordan, Simon, and Whitman.
They were all much better financed. And all lost.
Firefighter organization endorsements come from labor groups.
Retired firefighters are individuals. Huge difference.
The poll cited show candidate Kim-Varet going from a name ID close to zero to a respectable 14% in a few months. Pretty impressive, I think.
Over 100K union households in this single district? Seems like a huge number. And nobody claimed money was the ONLY determining factor. It is a factor. Having the resources to put out your message is an important factor, I’d argue.
I suggest burning those straw men you keep arguing against. Make sure JoKer is around to play the hero and put out the fire that results.
And yet, Kerr is tied for second. Imagine what happens when the IEs kick in. We’ve got months to go before the primary
You wrote;
“Over 100K union households in this single district? Seems like a huge number.”
Yup. You can look it up.
That you do not know that only reinforces Dan’s earlier comment about what you know.
Esther Kim has spent millions to get to 14%.
Kerr has spent close to zero to be in a three way tie.
Tell me who is getting better bang for their buck.
You seem like a shill. More likely you are just a hack.
You wrote;
“The poll cited show candidate Kim-Varet going from a name ID close to zero to a respectable 14% in a few months. Pretty impressive, I think.”
Tell me who believes 14% is respectable and impressive.
I’m told…by whom? Esther who raised a bunch of money from outside the district? Lisa who has shady financing ofher campaign? Perry Meade, who still has an open FPPC complian for stealing social media users from March for Our Lives? You’re stupid dude. Buthey, we all thought Greg Diamond was dead after not posting anything since August. Hope the divorce was clean