If you have not already done so, get out and vote.  If, for some reason, you are denied a ballot, ask for a provisional ballot as is your right by law.

Unless other red states flip, as the Des Moines Register’s pollster predicts, its going to be a few days until all the ballots are counted.  Be patient and make sure you vote.

Blogger Vance Ulrich has these predictions on CA House races.

Congressional District 40

Geography: South Orange County: Mission Viejo, Orange, Lake Forest

Incumbent: Young Kim (R)

2020 Presidential results: Joe Biden +2

Congresswoman Young Kim was re-elected in this Biden+2 seat in 2022 by a whopping almost 14%, and this cycle doesn’t look to be much better for Democrats.

Democratic firefighter labor leader and centrist Joe Kerr defeated Emily’s List-endorsed Tustin School District Trustee Allyson Muñiz Damikolas in the primary by about 14,000 votes or 7.6% of the vote. Kerr loaned himself over a million dollars, which gave him a large financial advantage over Damikolas. Peculiarly, Kerr has only raised about $800k the entire election cycle and heads into November with just $387k cash-on-hand to incumbent Kim’s whopping $2.8 million.

Kim finished at 56% of the vote in the primary and neither parties have seriously invested in this race at all.

Public non-partisan polling: None.

My prediction: Kim wins comfortably but her share probably comes down from 56% with a better Democratic turnout in November than the primary.

Editor’s note:  I think Kerr does better than expected; Kim’s promising lower gas prices and no inflation — something a Congressional rep has no control over.  This district is going hard for Harris and Kerr will benefit from that.  If Kim thought this was in the bag, why did she run inaccurate attack ads against Kerr?

Congressional District 45

Geography: North Orange County: Garden Grove, Westminster, Buena Park

Incumbent: Michelle Steel (R)

2020 Presidential results: Joe Biden +6

California’s 45th Congressional District is the most unique swing district in California and possibly the entire country. The district has a fastly growing Asian-American community that comprises nearly a plurality of voters at 36% Citizen Voting-Age Population (CVAP), with Vietnamese-American voters comprising about 18%. While this district gets a lot of attention for it’s large Vietnamese-American community based in Little Saigon, it actually has a sizable Latino population as well at 23% CVAP.

Like CA-27 in Los Angeles County, this district received very little investment from the national Democratic Party in 2022 — Democratic nominee Jay Chen was collectively outspent 5:1 with more than $5 million spent against him on TV from the NRCC and CLF. Incumbent Steel went on to win the district by about 5% in a cycle where CA Democratic turnout was very mediocre. The campaign included accusations of red-baiting with Steel’s campaign trying to tie Jay Chen to Communist China while Chen countered that Steel’s husband, Shawn Steel, has ties to China’s CCP.

Learning the lessons from 2022 and the important of the Viet vote in CA-45, several AAPI Democrats ran in the primary, including most prominently Garden Grove Councilwoman Kim Nguyen-Penaloza and Democratic lawyer and US Army veteran Derek Tran. While Nguyen-Penaloza jumped into the primary fairly quickly — just 25 days into 2023 — she struggled with fundraising, only raising about $340k through fourteen months. Tran jumped in 10 months later in October and raised $642k through the five months until the March Primary. While Nguyen-Penaloza was badly outraised, she had several very important endorsements including the CA Democratic Party, Irvine Congresswoman Katie Porter, and the LA Times. Nonetheless, in the end, Tran defeated Nguyen-Penaloza by just 367 votes or 0.3% of the vote. Notably, Tran did win a plurality of the Democratic votes in Little Saigon — he won 20% of the vote to Nguyen’s 16%.

Public non-partisan polling: Tran 48%; Steel 46% (Tran+2)

My prediction: I genuinely never expected this race to get to his point — Steel had a strong early start, but I think Tran has made inroads with the normally Rep-leaning Viet vote in Little Saigon. I haven’t seen any polling at all that has Steel winning the crucial AAPI vote and her actions show. Tran+1 is my prediction but I wouldn’t be shocked to be wrong.

Editor’s Note:  This one is a coin flip; hopeful Little Saigon turns bluer.

Congressional District 47

Geography: Orange County: Irvine, Huntington Beach, Costa Mesa

Incumbent: OPEN (Katie Porter-D)

2020 Presidential results: Joe Biden +11

No House district in Southern California has been as hardly fought over the last two cycles as this OC based district. There was almost $41 million (!!!) spent in this House seat during the 2022 midterms — $28 million of which came from prolific fundraiser Katie Porter. Internal polling was rumored to show a very tight race between Porter and her Republican opponent Scott Baugh, but Porter ended up winning re-election by 3.4%. Porter ran as a strong champion of abortion rights follow the fall of Roe and hit Baugh over his corruption indictments in the 1990s.

The 2024 CA-47 primary probably featured the most hard-fought Democratic primary in California and maybe the entire country. Three strong candidates initially announced for this seat — State Senator Dave Min, Former Congressman Harley Rouda, and political activist Joanna Weiss. Following a freak accident that left former Congressman Harley Rouda with a traumatic brain injury, he abruptly dropped out of the race to focus on his recovery, and would later endorse Joanna Weiss for the Democratic nomination. A few weeks later, Senator Min was arrested for a DUI in a government vehicle following a function in Sacramento. Subsequently, about a month later, EMILY’s List endorsed Joanna Weiss for the Democratic nomination. Critically, Min would win the CA Democratic Party and Congresswoman Porter’s endorsement.

Very surprisingly, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) decided to wade into the primary fight and spent about $5 million in TV ads and mailers to warn voters that Min “couldn’t be trusted” because of the DUI arrest. EMILY’s List, an outside group that supports pro-choice Democratic women, spent another $1 million on TV to boost Joanna Weiss. Nonetheless, the intervention from the outside groups fell short and Min defeated Weiss by about 11,000 votes or 6.5%.

Democratic nominee Min will face off with re-run Scott Baugh. Nearly 60% of CA-47 residents have at least a bachelor’s degree — one of the most educated House districts in the country, so it’s really hard to imagine Trump improving from his 11% drubbing in this district in 2020.

Public non-partisan polling: Baugh 49%; Min 46% (Baugh+3)

My prediction: Dave Min+5. This college-educated suburban district is just too tough for a Republican to overcome the top of the ticket pull.

Editor’s note:  The AAPI vote in Irvine is 17% of the electorate and have returned 20% of the ballots thus far and is outperforming other groups.  This block is voting for Min.

Congressional District 49

Geography: South Orange County/North San Diego County: Oceanside, Carlsbad, Vista

Incumbent: Mike Levin (D)

2020 Presidential results: Joe Biden +12

This quickly left-trending coastal SoCal district had more than $27 million spent in the 2022 midterms between incumbent Democrat Mike Levin and Republican Brian Maryott. There were rumors that internal polling in the district had a dead heat or even Levin down slightly, but the incumbent ended up holding on fairly comfortably by 5.4%.

However, 2024 is shaping up to be a completely different cycle. There’s only been minimal outside spending on behalf of Levin and the Republican candidate Matt Gunderson only has $144k cash-on-hand after a bruising primary with fellow Republican Margarita Wilkinson. In fact, as quickly as this district has moved left and with incumbency, it’s possible that this district falls off the map of contested House seats going forward.

Public non-partisan polling: Levin 53%; Gunderson 41% (Levin+12)

My prediction: Levin wins re-election by high single digits. Not even that close.

Editor’s note: Levin’s number surpass his 2022 victory.

CA-46 did not get a write up from Ulrich, but bank of Rep. Lou Correa beating a Vietnamese carpetbagger from Irvine in this race.