Big Night for Democrats in OC

OCDemsRepsPrimary

For the fist time, Democrats beat Republicans in voter turnout for a primary election in Orange County and there were several surprises with last night’s primary results.  Here’s a quick snapshot below:

  • Polls tightened in California between Secretary Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders leading up to Tuesday night’s election.  With the Associated Press calling the race for Hillary on Monday, it looks like Clinton supporters were invigorated or Sanders supporters stayed home (or a combination of the two).  Hillary’s decisive victory in California and elsewhere (except North Dakota) ought to have Sanders re-thinking his strategy of staying in the race until July’s convention.  It’s way past over and his mistaken belief that super-delegates, a group he’s pretty much insulted for a period of months, will somehow switch votes for him is simply folly.  Still feeling the Bern?  There are creams for that.  The fire’s out; time to make history with Hillary.
  • Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez wrapped up the second spot in the race for US Senate.  Sure, AG Kamala Harris won by a large margin. And now that it’s a two horse race, Sanchez will benefit from conservatives, NPP, independents, moderates, pro-business Democrats, and a swelling tide of Latino voters headed into November.  It reminds me of the 2012 Norby-Quirk-Silva race where Norby won huge in the primary with Quirk-Silva focused on November for the win.  Both Harris and Sanchez are still working their day jobs while running for office.  The difference is stuff isn’t getting done in Sacramento by Harris (OC’s biggest mass murder case?) but is getting done in DC per Sanchez.
  • Lou Correa dominated CD-46 race winning with 41.6% of the vote; Correa’s 24,184 were more than the next three candidates combined.  Correa will face Republican Bob Peterson in November.  Garden Grove Mayor Bao Nguyen finished third, 540 votes ahead of former State Senator Joe Dunn.  Lynn Schott was a distant fifth. On Anna Drive, Correa has 52% of the vote and Dunn leads Bao by 2 votes.  Correa has 47.3% of the vote in Anaheim’s Third District which makes him a factor in the Anaheim City elections.

    Lou Correa celebrates June 2016 primary win
    Lou Correa celebrates June 2016 primary win
  • Earlier in the day, Bao had issued a poll showing he was in second place according to a Capitol Weekly exit poll done by email which Dunn campaign operative Jim Pantone ripped Bao apart on Facebook for being dishonest about the poll with numerous Dunn supporters chiming in on how shameful it was.  In this campaign between and among friends, serious damage has been done to a number of friendships.  It’s my opinion, the Dunn campaign operatives and volunteers are the ones who can repair these rifts by reaching out and offering help to those moving on in November.  If they go scorched Earth here, they damage may be permanent.  I’ll note one small detail; someone from the Dunn campaign left a “Dunn for Congress” sign on city property in front of Lou Correa’s house on election day.  I’m sure Mr. Dunn himself would view that as a classless move.   Dunn sign at Correa's House
  • A pretty good night for OC Democrats on assembly races.  Sharon Quirk-Silva topped Young Kim by more than 3,000 votes in AD-65.  Sean Panahi crushed Harry Sidhu by more than 8,500 votes and may not be the sacrificial lamb the guys at OrangeJuice think he is; Sidhu isn’t well liked in Anaheim where his base is and can only count on hard core Republican votes in the fall from hard core Trump supporters who would vote for the devil himself if there was an “R” next to his name.  Panahi *can* win.  And independent Brian Chuchua finished dead last with 3,014 proving once again how delusional some in the blogsphere can be.  In a surprise, Karina Onofre upset Matt Harper in AD-74 by nearly 3,000 votes.  Republican Katherine Daigle scored 14,885 votes so Onofre will have to work hard to earn Daigle’s “no-Harper” votes to her side in November.  Tom Daly won big with 69% of the vote in AD-68.  Lenore Albert-Sheridan was the only Democrat not able to win the assembly primary losing to Travis Allen in AD-72 by 15,000 votes, but she does make it to November.
  • Josh Newman will square off against Ling Ling Chang for SD-29; Newman owes his victory to Fullerton developer Tony Bushala’s aggressive campaign against Sukhee Kang.  If there is a sacrificial lamb running in November, it’s Newman.  The Democratic Party could have had a well-financed candidate with a boatload of endorsements and a built in-base that works well against Chang.  Instead, we have a first time candidate that Chang will likely rip to shreds who won’t have the financial means to fight back.  And even if Newman wins, he’ll be beholden to Bushala who will expect some return on his investment.
  • In the First District supervisors race, Andrew Do beat Michelle Martinez by just 200 votes despite having a huge fundraising advantage.  Do hobbles to November beaten up badly by Phat Bui and Martinez will have the Latino wave cresting for November and none of the distractions of other candidates to worry about.  Democrats have an excellent chance to take Do’s seat in November.
  • With the exception of Sharon Quirk-Silva’s win in AD-65, the OC Labor Fed had a very bad night.  Joe Dunn lost big.  Sukhee Kang lost big.  Tom Daly won big.  They did nothing to help Michele Martinez, Karina Onofre, or Sean Panahi.  There haven’t been a lot of bright spots in the political arena for the OC Labor Fed in some time; perhaps they are out of step with voters or carrying on personal grudges that hurt working people more than help them.  What is clear is the OC Labor Fed unions  clearly don’t have the influence that they think they have.  Perhaps its time for new leadership more willing with work with Democrats who win elections than hold grudges against them.
  • With Steven Choi’s second loss in an Assembly race, the betting money is he’ll make a third run for mayor (he can due to a reset of term limits passed in 2014).  But there’s also a rumor he’s tired of being on the city council and Don Wagner is reportedly being pushed by FivePoint to run.  With Gang Chen in the race as a Republican, Chen’s candidacy can pull between 5 and 10 percent of the Republican vote his way.  With Hillary Clinton on top of the ballot, Democrats leading Irvine voter registration over Republicans by more than 1,000 registered voters, a fractured Irvine Republican “team,” and a high turnout presidential year, it’s not out of the question that Mary Ann Gaido will be elected mayor with two Democrats replacing Beth Krom and Christina Shea on the ballot.  FivePoint is going to have to spend a lot on IEs; there is no Agran on the ballot so watch IEs stretch the truth to connect any Democrat running to Larry Agran.  It’s their only hope.

Lastly, a thank you is in order.  I was on the ballot for the first time since I ran (and won) for student body president in high school.  I ran for a spot on the DPOC Central Committee in AD-68 and finished fifth overall with 9,155 votes or 12.7%.  I was the top vote getter for non-incumbents.

What I particularly enjoyed about this quiet race conducted mostly via email and social media was hearing from the many kids I coached in Irvine in baseball, soccer and basketball dating back to the late 1990s, as well as kids in my cub scout troop, the neighborhood swim league and neighbors.  I got dozens of emails with the same sort of message: “I voted for you Coach Dan.”  So even if I had lost, I won.

Thanks again for those who supported by candidacy and to my family for giving me the green light to do this.  I look forward to participating in the DPOC Central Committee with a focus on going after Republicans instead of punishing fellow Democrats, which seems to be in vogue these days.  Time to brush up on Roberts Rules of Order.

 

75 Comments

  1. In 2012 total Dem vote was down b/c BHO had the nomination locked up.

    In 2016 Reeps are down b/c Trump had the nomination locked up.

    That’s the way it goes.

    • Well, if the Republicans picked a guy like Ben Sasse instead of Donald Trump the well to do Republicans in Newport Beach and Yorba Linda would have shown up. Sasse is smart, he believes in retraining instead of trying to bring back factory work since factory work is being also done more by robots and automation, and is also producing less jobs because of robots and automation. The whites in OC are less blue collar than they were during Reagan term because its an expensive placed to live. Another reason why Trump did worst than Romeny in the county. The OC Republicans need to not just support Aerospace which is slowly coming back because some of the defense spending budget is coming back but more high tech. Trump supporters disliked Silicon Valley with a passion but more folks are going to worked as computer programmers. The only good idea that Trump has on this is to limit the number of H1B’s which gives more jobs to native born Orange County folks.

  2. Congratulations Dan, it is nice to hear that a non established candidate won, particularly, since the other team stacks the Central Committee with dozens of candidates so that they can control the base against the non establishment.

  3. Do will pick up most of the Viet votes from Phat Bui & white cookoo Rocco votes – that should be enough to defeat Martinez.

    • Maybe, maybe not. Dems have a 14 point advantage in that district. Couple that with increased hispanic turnout because of the Trump factor and this race could be up for grabs.

  4. “.. Lenore Albert-Sheridan .. does make it to November.”

    Oh wonderful …. we get to hear from the whack-job who threatens to behead people once again …. not nice ….. 🙁

      • Maybe Vern should go back to jail – I guess 2009 was not long enough – ever try a drug/alcohol rehab program? If you are in the same one George Olivo was in, well, change Vern Nelson. That chap which led your loyal sidekick, Greg Diamond to attack me, has a few DUIs behind him, a few DUIs ahead of him and a battery while brandishing a weapon charge in front of him. Making bail does not impress me much. Failing to appear at arraignment so bail is pulled, is priceless. What a motley crew – Vern and Greg support a known felon who tried to hit me over the head with a statue while in a delusional rage on July 11, 2014. Maybe you should stick to playing the piano? Show us where you have actually helped the community – any of you. You haven’t. Look where I have helped this community. By community, I don’t even mean just Orange County. I will broaden it to California in general. I have made UC Regents take responsibility for fraud in the way they obtain permission for autopsies. I have stopped approximately 1,000 homes from being sold at foreclosure in the spring of 2011. I have held most of the major banks accountable, including but not limited to Aurora, Chase, and Bank of America. My cases opened the door for the ban on dual tracking, LIBOR antitrust violations and the like. Because I have actually helped the community, and the community knows it. I ended up getting more votes and a higher percentage of votes than recent past Democrat candidates against Travis Allen. The people know me. You are just a blogger and troll who takes every opportunity you can to harass me in cyberspace. I was and still am the ENDORSED candidate of the California Democratic party. Take care of that problem Vern. Kamalla Harris ended up getting a restraining order against Karen Rozier. George, Karen, Maegan (another one who enjoyed some jail time this year), Norma, well you can see the pattern of your supporters, right? You know what they say – birds who flock together…

  5. “The Democratic Party could have had a well-financed candidate [Sukhee] with a boatload of endorsements and a built in-base that works well against Chang.”

    Right, then why’d he choke in June? The all-powerful Bushala is stronger than “a boatload of endorsements, a built-in base,” and all the Party’s money? Nope, people like Josh better.

    • You guys had a tough night Nelson. When will Dunn call to congratulate Lou. Is Paul Lucas using his tears for bong water?

    • I am respectfully requesting that this off topic comment be allowed here as Vern censored them – deleted from his OJ blog.

      Rebuttal to Vern Nelson’s (VN) comments re. Magnolia charter schools. In his comments he called Gloria Romero a “f**king liar.”

      Note: Information herein provided to me by a parent of 2 students at Magnolia Science Academy (MSA) charter school Costa Mesa.

      VN: “.. Magnolia .. hires only males ..”
      Me: That is untrue and laughably ridiculous. How are you going to back up that preposterous assertion?
      VN: “I misunderstood something I heard. (Note this was a quick off-topic comment, not a researched post.)”
      Me: **For future reference – how do we distinguish between the two? **
      Me: Vern’s original statement rated “FALSE” – subsequently attempted to be corrected – by another false statement.
      VN: “There ARE women working at Magnolia schools, but they are a minority of the Americans employed there, which in turn is a minority.”
      Me: At MSA Costa Mesa prox. 30 teachers total – 50/50 male to female ratio – Principle & VP are women.
      Vern’s statement re. women is rated “FALSE”
      Me: At MSA Costa Mesa Americans are the overwhelming majority of teachers and administrators.
      Vern’s statement re. ratio of Americans is also rated “FALSE”
      VN: “Most of the people working at these schools are Gulen cult members, mostly from India on H1 (or H5?) visas, and ALL of those are men as it is a sexist cult.”
      Me: Per evidence previously presented: FALSE – FALSE – FALSE – FALSE
      VN: “It is an abuse of our visa system, which is supposed to be designed for foreign specialists who can do important work that no American can do. And yes, we do have math teachers that are just as good as any Gulen Indian.”
      Me: There are no Indian teachers at MSA Costa Mesa
      Vern’s statement again rated “FALSE”
      VN: “These visa abusers are then paid with our taxpayer dollars, and are expected to fork over a big chunk of their pay to the furtherance of whatever damn struggle their cult is pursuing on the other side of the earth.”
      Me: There may be 2 or 3 visa holders at MSA Costa Mesa – but no more.
      Vern’s statement rated “Mostly False”

      Not one true statement in the bunch from Vern Nelson.
      Where do you get your information Vern? – you must pull it out of your a$$.
      Thank you for allowing this off topic comment.

      • I was right about all that. You’ll see in a day or two. But it was off topic on that thread, and I was busy with relevant stuff.

        • Oh but it was, Mr. Steve Rocco.

          My piece on the OCBOE described lots of abuse of the charter school system, but I left out that whole Gulen story because it’s complicated and crazy and there are plenty of examples outside of it, and I didn’t have time to get into that or research it properly either.

          And the piece was about OCBOE, not Anaheim school districts, and you insisted on changing the subject by hawking Gloria Romero’s libelous charges against Jose Moreno re. Turkey and Gulen. Was not the time for all that, a day before election when I was talking about a whole ‘nother race.

          The stuff you found out from someone at one Costa Mesa school may or MAY NOT be true at that particular Costa Mesa school, but I will have documents this week showing that it is true overall about the whole organization.

          • Since you used the term against Gloria Romero, I will use it here – you Vern Nelson are a “f**king liar.”

            Your premise for removing the 3 from office IS their pro-charter stance – you call them “extremist.” While your chosen candidates were supported by the true extremists – the teachers unions – who would prefer that NO charter schools are to be granted by the OCBoE.

            My example of Magnolia Science Academy was pertinent to the discussion of charter schools – you chose to respond to it. Albeit with a bunch of garbage – which you say you did not research. When I blew all of your talking points out of the water you chose to take the discussion down. Perhaps because you felt embarrassed at calling Gloria Romero a “f**king liar” – you should be embarrassed and ashamed for that.

            You are totalitarian scum Mr. Vern “Winston Smith” Nelson.

            • GLoria Romero ISa f**ng liar, and a paid-off one. And you are a dumb-dumb. Try to have a little patience. Pleasure yourself if necessary. My last response till my next piece on this topic.

            • And you’re stupid and blind and dishonest. Liz Dorn Parker, David Boyd, Beckie Gomez, Michael Parham, Jack Bedell, Jose Moreno, and all Jose’s colleagues, are not any kind of “extremists.” All of them who’ve been in a position to have supported numerous responsible charters, and the others would. YOU are the swallower of koolaid.

  6. Congratulations Dan.

    A few observations, Greg Diamond is somehow taking credit for predicting Kangs defeat, I guess he should, he practically colluded with Bushala to bring him down. Shame on him. Newman is dust.

    Speaking of shameful, somebody caught a picture of Vern Nelson, Gregs Co-Blogger, dancing like street-sign guy for a store closing with a Joe Dunn sign, RIGHT IN FRONT OF LOU’S HQ,With his kids and others.
    Vern is in a word pitiful.

    AD65- NICE WORK Sean! That poor guy Brian Choochoo, what a way to ride out your final days by being humiliated. He should kick himself for listening to those crazies.

    At DPOC HQ, Michelle was very eloquent. To her detractors: this woman has come a long way. Tom Daly, one of the Amezcua’s and another guy everybody knew, but I did’nt were supportive.

    Lou Correa – what to say but, what a statement AGAINST Joe Dunn and his supporters. Consider, Bernie did OK in the district, so voters either liked Bao better or simply saw right through Joe Done. Note to Joe, you are judged by the comany you keep, felons, rabble rousers and single minded activists reflect poorly on you.

    Take a NAP OC. Cause the fun starts in:
    5,4,3,2…….1!

      • Yup that was me. Except it wasn’t really THAT close to Lou’s (previously Tait’s) headquarters, it was a few buildings over on a busy corner. It was just the most convenient place that afternoon since I had been writing a great piece about Fullerton districting corruption at the Starbucks there. Another thing nobody here knows or cares about.

        • “Speaking of shameful, somebody caught a picture of Vern Nelson .. dancing like street-sign guy .. with a Joe Dunn sign, RIGHT IN FRONT OF LOU’S HQ,With his kids and others. Vern is in a word pitiful.”

          “Shameful” and classless – and puerile and and and …..

          • LOL, I like that “with his kids and others…” musta been some of the high school students waiting at the red light. I guess anyone who’s young and hispanic is thought of as my kids on this blog.

            And I wasn’t dancing either. I WOULD like a copy of that picture. I was just doing my little bit at the last minute for the guy I still think would have been the best Congressman we could have had.

            • I don’t want to be misunderstood. I mentioned the kids. LOU’S kids and supporters kids.Not yours. I didn’t think you were Latino!

              I was told there was much head shaking and dissapointment that “Greg’s Boy” was doing this. It was at once, childish, rude and unbecoming of Joe Dunn.

              Joe lost because he wasn’t known, he ran a HORRIBLE campaign and let maniacs (Greg Diamond), felons (you and Paul Lucas AKA Henry Lipton and one issue activists (Jeff LeTurneuo) speak for him.

              He NEVER had wide support and never tried too. This is not 1197 and FLORAL PARK doesn’t matter anymore, sh!t even Loretta left.

              Joe lost because was a BAD canidate, who ran a BAD campaign.
              Your shenanigans did’nt do anything but make people question your integrity, sense and credibility

  7. Being a glass half-full guy, I’m mostly happy about last night because of the huge Dem turnout (which I noted in the morning), and the good results of Josh and Sharon in my town.

    30 years of a Congressman Correa, and 12 years or whatever of an Assemblyman Sidhu, are both disappointing to think about, but to be expected especially given Joe’s lackluster campaign.

    The most depressing thing was some judges winning who shouldn’t have, and the two loonies on the OCBOE almost but not quite being defeated – something I wrote about but should have earlier, and THIS blog never wrote about at all. (Except for on the wrong side, bizarrely insulting the one good OCBOE guy David Boyd.)

    I’m excited to be helping Sharon and Josh these next few months. Now stop sending me obnoxious texts before I block you like everyone else has.

    • I also note Dan didn’t mention Greg’s Senate candidate Kamala kicking Lo’s derriere (which’ll most likely happen again in November unless Lo drastically tacks right, appealing to Republicans, which Dan is already cheering her on to do.)

      I suppose I didn’t think of crowing about that because I ALSO preferred Loretta. So, blog-war DRAW or something.

  8. Since Diamond doesn’t support primary winners who benefit from IEs, guess that means no support for Josh Newman

  9. I would expect Ling Ling to DESTROY Josh Newman. Having benefitted from Tony’s generosity Josh needs to realize how suseptable voters are to BS.

    So when The Chang/Royce cabal starts calling him a “San Fransisco Democrat” and rolls out his 1994 platform, he’ll spook.

    Then when he is hit HARD on his questionable vets charity (80 vets per year?), his finances, his lack of a job and the whole “kitchen table” thing, he’ll cry uncle.

    But it won’t end there, Greg may think clever and zany, but voters won’t want their Senator to dress like smokey the bear.

    So Josh will have to rely on his Graphic Artist base (you know there are several).

  10. Vern and others, just so ya knows, Lenore Albert – Sheridan uses the nickname squirrel sometimes. And, she likes to comment unflatteringly on the appearance of other people’s spouses if she is angry with them. Does it with other lawyers and judges all the time. Especially calling them fat.

    So, there are some indicia, is all I’m sayin’

  11. So I heard, or as Coco Puff would say: “given to understand” that the Pantones were but part of the problem with the Dunn campaign.
    It was described to me that watching them work was like “watching a Planned Parenthood video”, a complete abortion. It did not entirely rest on Jim and Carina, even though they made a LOT of money, other people’s money for doing little and producing less.
    Joe and Diane were said to be disconnected, almost aloof. Their community events so carefully staged and arranged by friendlies that it would do NO GOOD. He was preaching to the choir. His whole OCYD stunt was complete fantasy politics. “”Those guys ate too many brownies” I heard a BIG DEM DONOR say. It seemed a chore for him to talk about issues of poverty and struggle.
    What surprised many, was his apparent ability to FIGHT BACK, contrary to his advertised image, he was not a fighter, rather a meek, small, privileged guy. There were some NASTY allegations thrown at him, but publicly and privately he cowered. People vote for fighters, not fairies.
    Bottom line is this: Lou learned from his past mistakes, hired PROFESSIONALS, ran a real campaign and WON. Wine socials, meth-heads, token poor people, crazy bloggers and .trade websites DON’T WIN ELECTIONS. Committed candidates do, that’s why Lou Correa ran away with this thing.

    • I have no real insight to how that campaign operated, but on social media it seemed as though most of Lou’s supporters were people who know him. Those attacking Lou and defending Dunn, for the most part, were paid staff. It was another poor showing for OC’s Labor Fed. The only candidate they worked hard for who won was Sharon Quirk Silva. The Labor Fed did back Michele Martinez, but didn’t provide a lot of support. Lou’s win and Daly’s win do prove the district is Democratic but not liberal. Look at the margin of victory

      • Actually Bernie Sanders is barely losing in the 46th CD, he did better here than in San Francisco. Yet doing the math, it is clear people who voted for Bernie Sanders also voted for Lou Correa, why because they know him, not just the name but the guy. Go to any fundraiser at a restaurant and he is the one politico there who can go back into the kitchen and the cooks know him and greet him with a hug or warm hand shake. That is popularity money can’t buy.

        • Probably, because Dems in conservative counties have more folks to the left which explains Sanders wining but Correa is a moderate Dem like Daily. Daily I thought had a good idea of just rising minium wage to 12 an hour in the rural counties since their cost of living is much lower.

        • Also, Bernie Sanders from a rural state like Vermont appeals more folks in suburban and rural areas. Vermont way back in the 1960’s was pretty conservative until city boys like Sanders relocated there. This can also explain Sanders appeal to people in Suburba, he won Santa Barbara County.

    • Greg just fixed a batch of oatmeal for “Choo-choo”, perhaps to get him to pay for another “expenditure”. Poor old guy thinks he’s buying a crankcase for a ’58 Willeys, he’s paying rent for a kitchen table law office. He still thinks CATER is an off road crew !

      Someone should call the public gaurdian.

  12. Congresswoman Mimi Walters has a 12.25% registration advantage. 19% voted for her Republican opponent Greg Raths. If the Raths voters, in the November election, vote for ‘None of the Above’ then the Democrat could win.
    The Republican district would only have to put up with the Progressive Democrat, Ron Varasteh for two years.
    https://www.conservativereview.com/scorecard
    Mimi Walters scorecard is “F23%
    The Democrat, Maxine Waters scorecard is “F28% (for comparison).
    A Ron Varasteh scorecard of 60% should get him re-elected in 2018.
    Paul Ryan 55%
    Ed Royce 56%
    Darrell Issa 57% Conservative.

  13. Well, another interesting thing is Bernie Sanders did better in more conservative counties. Most of the counties won by Sanders were rural and more conservative. Probably, in more conservative Counties Dems tend to be more to the left. Sanders did better in Orange County than in Los Angeles as a percentage.

  14. “If there is a sacrificial lamb running in November, it’s Newman. The Democratic Party could have had a well-financed candidate with a boatload of endorsements and a built in-base that works well against Chang. Instead, we have a first time candidate that Chang will likely rip to shreds who won’t have the financial means to fight back.”

    Irvine Mayor Kang wasn’t even subjected to well-financed opponent who would beat him up on his pathetic record and his carpetbagging – and he still came in LAST. He should be grateful he wasn’t subjected to the assault the Republicans would have unloaded on him.

    As for fundraising, what did his alleged prowess get him? He spent a fortune just trying to introduce himself to his would-be neighbors and he failed dismally. Now he can move back to Irvine and run for mayor again. Good riddance.

    Built-in base? Hahaha!

    P.S. That’s “Soon-to-be Senator Newman” to you.

    • IEs financed by millionaire developer Tony Bushala played into this; Josh is going to have to submit to Tony’s bidding but I can’t see him doing better than he did in the primary. Asian voters vote for surname not party alliance. Ling Ling will get Sukhee’s voters. Menawhile, Josh can try to get support from voters in the district. The bear suit aint going to help him

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