Down to the wire in SD 34

Tuesday 5 pm update-

Daucher’s lead has eroded once more.  Now it’s down to 302 votes.

Daucher   51,736     50.15%

Correa     51,434     49.85%

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The campaign in Senate District 34 is turning out to be even closer than many expected. This one featured the battle of the moderates with moderate Democrat Lou Correa (currently County Supervisor and formerly the Assemblymember from AD69) competing with moderate Republican Lynn Daucher (termed-out Assemblymember from AD72) to replace State Senator Joe Dunn and represent central Orange County (Anaheim, Buena Park, Fullerton, Garden Grove, Midway City, Santa Ana, Stanton, and Westminster).

Yesterday Lou picked up 403 votes on Lynn. Her overall lead dropped to 361 votes. This is JUST UNDER ONE VOTE PER PRECINCT for that district.

I’ve been running through a few scenarios today. I’m not a fan of absentee prognostications, but I think Lou will pick up more today, and trim Lynn’s lead a bit more (if not eliminating it entirely). And I think he’ll continue to pick up in the provisionals.

My only solid wager is this – it will continue to be a close one.

In 1996 when Correa first ran for Assembly, he lost by 93 votes (news of this was overshadowed by Loretta Sanchez’ 984 vote margin over Bob Dornan and the subsequent recount and challenge). I worked for Lou in that first campaign. It would be sweet circular justice to see him win this one by 93. Of course I’d be happy with a larger margin. In the meantime my beard gets grayer every day and my skin is breaking out due to stress.

Other close races to watch when the 5 pm number is released:

In the Anaheim Union High School District election Jordan Brandman is picking up some and is within striking distance.

Measure O, the Rancho Santiago construction bond, is moving up, and closer to the threshold of 55% it needs to pass.

Any others?

And thanks Mike for adding me to your team here