Tulchin Research Poll projects primary tie between Kim-Varet and Calvert, Kim-Varet is the only Democrat with a paid media campaign, putting the district in play.
Poll projects Democrats boxed-out by vote splitting in any other scenario, for the only U.S. House contest in the nation with two incumbent Republicans.
RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA, CA. A Tulchin Research poll of 800 likely CA-40 voters, commissioned by Esther Kim-Varet for Congress, confirms Democrats have only one path to the November general election in California’s 40th Congressional District, the only House district in the nation whose contest includes two incumbent Republican Representatives.
Tulchin’s poll tested three primary scenarios. In two of them, both Ken Calvert and Young Kim advance to the general election, with Democrats boxed out of a must-win seat. In the third scenario, Esther Kim-Varet advances to face Ken Calvert in the general election. The Esther Kim-Varet campaign is the only campaign to have the resources needed to execute an actual paid communication campaign and advance to the general campaign.
Scenario 1: No substantive paid communication by any Democratic campaign. The Democratic vote splits several ways against unknown candidates, with most voters going only by the names and designations printed on their ballots. Calvert 25%, Young Kim 21%., and Kim-Varet is in a statistical tie with two other Democrats Kerr gets 7%. Calvert 25%, Young Kim 21%. Both Republicans advance to the general election.
Scenario 2: Voters hear all candidates’ biographies. Kim-Varet surges to 21% and takes the Democratic lead. It is not enough. Both Republicans still advance.
Scenario 3: Esther Kim-Varet is the only challenger candidate with a paid-media campaign, communicating her bio and messaging to likely primary voters. Kim-Varet rises to get 30% of the vote. Calvert is statistically tied with Kim-Varet for first place at 29%. Young Kim collapses to 20% and is displaced from November, outside the margin of error. This is the only scenario per the poll in which any Democrat makes the November ballot, and this is the exact scenario now playing out in CA-40. Kim-Varet is the only Democrat in the race with a paid media campaign or the resources to deploy one.
Kim-Varet has more cash on hand today than all other Democrats in the race have raised from external donors combined since they entered this race. Kim-Varet’s first TV ad, produced by ArmourEvans (the firm that advised successful OC challenger candidate Rep. Derek Tran in Orange County last cycle), debuted on April 17 and is now airing across the district. Weekly direct mail is dropping to nearly 50,000 Democratic primary voters, a district-wide text messaging program, 2,500 field signs across CA-40, and 200 trained volunteers are all already deployed, in advance of the start of primary mail-in voting in early May.
Republicans realize that Kim-Varet can and will flip the new 40th District.
This week, the Republican Party of Riverside County warned members across all of its communication channels that “radical liberal” Esther Kim-Varet “is coming for this seat” and called on Republicans to rally around Ken Calvert as the only person who can “stop her.” Republicans have read the Tulchin poll. They have read the FEC filings. They know which Democrat is the threat.
“The numbers don’t lie, and the stakes could not be higher,” said Esther Kim-Varet. “I am the only Democrat in this race with the resources, the organization, and the paid media reach it will take to prevail in this primary. The local Republican Party already knows I can flip this district given the fractured ‘jungle primary’ math, and they are sounding the alarm. They are right to be scared.”
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California’s newly drawn 40th Congressional District, spanning portions of Riverside County and Orange County, is one of the most consequential U.S. House battlegrounds in the nation. CA-40 is the only district in America where two Republican incumbents (Young Kim and Ken Calvert) are running against each other in the primary. First-time candidate Esther Kim-Varet has raised nearly $3 million powered by more than 60,000 grassroots small-dollar contributions. Esther is a working mom of two and a small business owner running for Congress to restore the American Dream. In Congress, Esther will combat corruption, defend democracy, and fight for the middle class, small businesses, public education, and healthcare access.
Learn more at www.estherforcongress.org
A vote for Kerr or Ramirez is a vote for Calvert
The only thing EKV can do is guarantee a GOP win in CA 40.
As opposed to who?? bankrupt perennial spoiler Joe Kerr or lying landlord Lisa Ramirez who is pro life and changed her registration from Dem to NPP right after Kamala was nominated ?
No one in Orange County has endorsed her. Why is that?? Not even a “transactional” endorsement
Eric that’s false – Blakespear and Quirk-Silva both represent OC
estherkimvaret.com/endorsements
Oh and Esther is also endorsed by Rep Gil Cisneros who represents OC
And by Harley Rouda who used to be a very popular OC Rep
Ooooh. Pulling out the heavy hitters.
Correction: Cisneros represents the San Gabriel Vallery, stretch.
Forgive me.
who would you consider to be the heavy hitters in southern OC Eric, who have endorsed another Dem candidate in ca40?? I called out your false claims, just admit you are uninformed. For what it’s worth, Allyson Damikolas — who should have been the nominee in 24 had Kerr not savagely slandered her — has also endorsed Esther.
Blah blah blah. Why so defensive? How about we start with current and former legislators from the district she is carpetbagging in. It wasn’t really a false claim. It was an oversight. But silva and cisneros and blakespear and rouda aren’t very persuasive.
Damikolas endorsed anti-Armenian Xenophobe Farrah khan too. So ekv has no problem taking endorsements from folks that bolster xenophobes. Not something to be bragging about. Talk about being ignorant.
https://www.farrahnkhan.com/supporters
That’s right mvpatriot. Zip it!!
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxca40primaryadvance/who-will-advance-from-the-ca40-primary/kxca40primaryadvance-26
People are betting their $ that you are wrong, Esther has better than 50% odds to place in the top two — we shall see soon
Candidates with very low funding levels are unlikely to win a Congressional seat for the House. Try to find one that has total funding of $400k as an example and has won, not being an incumbent. AOC is often mentioned; she raised $1M by the primary, though. Other than Esther, the candidates do not have nearly that much based on the recent FEC filings for the first quarter of 2026. Lisa and Joe haven’t provided any updates on funding via their socials (compare this to Becerra for example who is doing just that now). Funding is certainly not the only item to consider. However, for those who are not politically engaged, they will mostly be seeing ad campaigns via mailers (Young Kim and Ken Calvert using their franking privileges at taxpayer expense), YouTube and MSM TV ads, and so forth. In the Orange County market, advertising on traditional TV is extremely expensive ($15k-$35k per 30 second spot in desirable showtime, as low as $5k other times/shows). The average person who is not political will not be subscribing to social media feeds of the candidates. So, what is a reasonable funding floor to be competitive for the CA40 primary? Lisa herself said $500k. Joe discounts the money aspect to a much greater degree, relying on union connections to perform tasks where he doesn’t have to pay. Esther believes that her level of funding helps get the word out to people so they can recognize her name and understand her policy points.
EVK is the single most unlikeable Democrat in this race, which is a shame. She fights with potential voters online telling them, “I don’t want your vote: if they question her or disagree with her. Then she blocks them. She also said in a recent townhall, “the US shouldn’t come to South Korea’s aid if North Korea invades, which sounds like someone who is trying to sound anti-war but knows nothing about foreign policy. She sucks. Vote Lisa Ramirez.
Regardless of your opinion of how likeable, Kim-Varet is the only possible Dem who can place in the top two and prevent a RepubLican box out. So unless you want to reelect Calvert or Kim, get behind Esther, don’t waste your vote on a Jill Stein spoiler. Hopefully come November Calvert will find Esther just as unlikeable as you do!!
Stop Asian hate! Don’t vote Esther.
You don’t live in CA40 do you? We don’t want Calvert or Kim representing us in Congress so we will elect Esther because she is the only D candidate with a serious campaign. I’m starting to think you’re a MAGA plant like that joker Joe Kerr. Prove me wrong.