TheLiberalOC was sent this document via email; Joe Kerr is in as a canddiate for CA-40.
The following information has been compiled and provided by the Joe Kerr for Congress campaign to address
the candidate’s viability in the 40th Congressional District, as well as the facts behind fielding a strong
candidate in this district.
40th Congressional District
● Likely Primary (D): 50,477
● Likely Primary (R): 63,471
● Likely Primary (NPP): 23,619
● Likely General (D): 106,369
● Likely General (R): 121,034 (8,756 of which are likely to disapprove of Trump as nominee)
● Likely General (NPP): 75,513 (56,059 of which have an affinity score of center-left)
2022 General Election
● Total turnout: 187,931
● Young Kim: 109,992 (58.5%)
● Asif Mahmood: 77,939 (41.5%)
● Only 71,583 Democrats that currently remain in the district voted in 2022
● 45,306 No Party Preference voters cast a ballot, 33,141 of which fall under the center-left score. These
votes went resoundingly for Young Kim.
● Asif Mahmood underperformed the R/D registration gap by 13.9%.
● 56.7% of registered Democrats voted and 66.4% of registered Republicans voted, signaling lack of trust
from Democrat voters in terms of viability in beating Young Kim.
● Even during a presidential election, where voters will once again reject Donald Trump, it is improbable
Asif Mahmood can close at 17% and 32,000 vote gap between him and Young Kim.
Joe Kerr
● Joe Kerr is the pragmatic, problem-solving Democrat and public safety champion who matches the
makeup of this district, can coalesce the base, increase turnout among Democrats, flip No Party
Preference voters back into our column, and move anti-Trump Republicans to Democrats down the
ballot.
● Joe can activate labor at the level needed to drive turnout on the ground, while operating an internal
canvassing operation that did not exist in the 2022 general election.
● Primary fundraising goal: $1 million. Joe will tap into his vast public safety and labor network to raise
these dollars with $0 in expenditures for acquiring dollars.
● Joe’s candidacy and primary top-two finish drastically increases the probability that DCCC follows
through on their six to seven figure spend commitment. With a candidate that was resoundingly
rejected in 2022, DCCC’s commitment is at risk.
● For 17 years, Joe served as President of OC Firefighters, which protects a vast majority of the 40th
District, providing for greater canvassing capabilities.
● As VP of the OC Labor Federation for 17 years, Joe will successfully mobilize the 90 unions and their
200,000 members in Orange County, in addition to mobilizing IAFF, a top 10 PAC in D.C., who is eager
to get involved and bring their vast resources if Joe is the party’s nominee.