After the 2016 election and the inaccurate poll numbers coming out of the various swing states the day before showing Hillary Clinton winning, I swore off Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight.com. But no one out there aggregates poll data like he does, and if he is to be believed this time, Orange County goes completely blue in November’s races for the House of Representatives.
Every Democrat with a piece of Orange County in the Congressional district they are running in is expected to be elected. From Lou Correa and Linda Sanchez with the largest margins to Gil Ciseneros’ smallest margin at less than 1% shows what was unthinkable just two years ago. The OC Congressional delegation would be almost completely made up of Democrats. That doesn’t mean its time to take the foot off the gas at all — time to worker harder and smarter — because of the millions Republicans have to spent to protect their incumbents. Ken Calvert is the only safe Republican and he has a toe hold in OC.
Here’s the breakdown:
Linda Sanchez, CD-38, a 99% chance of winning with 71.8% of the vote anticipated.
Lou Correa, CD-46, a 99% chance of winning with 72.4% of the vote anticipated.
Alan Lowenthal, CD-47, a 99% chance of winning with 67.7% of the vote anticipated.
Mike Levin, CD-49, an 84.6% chance of winning with nearly 54% of the vote anticipated.
Harley Rouda, CD-48 with a 66.7 chance of winning with 51.5% percent of the vote anticipated.
Katie Porter, CD-45, a 61% chance of winning with 51% of the vote anticipated.
Polls can change in a heartbeat. Cheer these results and get back to work. Knock on doors. Do those interviews. Write that check. Make those calls. Get out those street signs. Challenge Republicans to debate.
Take nothing for granted.