Tuesday’s 5 for 5 primary victory in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri and Illinois means unless there is a major implosion by Secretary Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nomination is all but wrapped up. The Democratic Party is the first major party to offer a woman as a candidate for president. For those who #FeelTheBern, the math isn’t in your favor. Bernie sanders needs to win every remaining state by 58% placing the odds of this happening at better than winning the PowerBall jackpot.
It’s time to come together to unite against the Trump or Cruz ticket — both equally awful and deterimental to the Republican Party especially down ticket.
Here’s what the numbers crunchers at www.fivethirtyeight.com have to say (they aren’t perfect but they are right more often than wrong). There is simply no way Bernie will take 58% of the vote in New York or California. Not happening,
Here’s some prose from Nate Silver himself:
I’m intrigued by the parallels to the 2008 campaign perhaps because it’s where FiveThirtyEight cut its teeth. I spent a lot of time in the spring of 2008 arguing that Obama’s lead in elected delegates would be hard for Clinton to overcome. But Clinton’s lead over Sanders is much larger than Obama’s was over Clinton at a comparable stage of the race. At the end of February 2008, after a favorable run of states for Obama, he led Clinton by approximately 100 elected delegates. Clinton’s lead is much larger this year.1 Clinton entered Tuesday’s contests ahead of Sanders by approximately 220 elected delegates. But she’ll net approximately 70 delegates from Florida, 20 from Ohio, 15 from North Carolina and a handful from Illinois and Missouri. That will expand her advantage to something like 325 elected delegates.
Sanders will need to win about 58 percent of the remaining 2,000 or so elected delegates to tie Clinton. Since the Democrats allot delegates proportionally, that means he’d need to win about 58 percent of the vote in the average remaining state to Clinton’s 42 percent, meaning he’d need to beat Clinton by around 16 points the rest of the way. Sanders would also have to overcome Clinton’s huge lead in superdelegates, although that’s probably the least of his worries. (If Clinton goes from winning the average state by double digits to losing it by the same margin, something cataclysmic will have had to have happened, likely sending her superdelegates scurrying for the exits.)
The second half of the calendar appears more favorable to Sanders than the states that have voted so far. Pretty much all of the South has voted, other than Maryland (if you consider it a Southern state), so Clinton doesn’t have many more delegates to rack up there. Not very much of the West has voted, and it will probably be a good region for Sanders. New York has lots of delegates, and could be interesting for Sanders, as could California. Pennsylvania could theoretically be a good state for Sanders, although it appears less promising for him after Clinton’s big win in Ohio.
Sanders can’t afford to merely come close in these states, as he did on Tuesday. Nor would narrow wins suffice. He needs to win these states going away to make up for his delegate disadvantage.
As far as Hillary’s liberal chops go, she has them and has been endorsed by a boatload of organizations known for liberal positions on the issues.
The danger here is the “Bernie or Bust” voter — the one who sits out the election because Bernie Sanders isn’t the nominee. Call me crazy but I want a registered Democrat to be the Democratic Party nominee; Bernie is an independent who caucuses with Democrats…a big difference. A “Bernie of Bust” voter is a vote for Trump or Cruz. Democrats need to hold on to the White House and Hillary Clinton will make history as our nation’s first female president.
Supposedly, Bernie’s staying in the race to win California. At best, he would split delegates with Secretary Clinton. By that time, it wouldn’t matter. It would be too little, too late.
Bernie needs to win in huge margins of the remaining states. That isn’t likely to happen. Hillary’s lead today is much bigger than Obama’s was in 2008 at this same point in the primaries
I think he is doing the right thing. He wants to give ALL of us – even us Californians – a chance to say what our vision is of where this country, and the Dem party, should be going. I am glad I can vote for him in June.
(Cue the LOC haters…)
Vern, please let me know if Bernie has ever endorsed a single down ticket Democrat in any race. It’d sure be nice if Bernie were an actual Democrat. He’s not. I think Democrats in California already have a vision of how to govern. But if you think Bernie is going to win California with 58% of the vote, I’d say you still have a serious drinking problem.
” I think Democrats in California already have a vision of how to govern.”
This is the problem with you not having any actual values. The limitations of the Dem leadership’s governance in this state are on display in the recent Coastal Commission coup, where Jerry Brown’s appointees throw the environment and public treasury under the bus for a few thousand temporary union jobs.
A writer, a blogger, has to keep a little critical vision.
Vern — and a writer, a blogger, has to view the big picture. And in the grand scheme of things, California is much better off today than we were before Brown took office. Step back and look at the entire field instead of focusing on a single player. I thought you were smarter than that. I was wrong.
What you say is true. What I say is also true. You don’t need to be a mindless Yes-man partisan.
I’m not mindless and you’re clearly not partisan; Nor is Greg. You’re both a couple of clownshoes.
Ah. The old clownshoe comeback. I stand corrected and overawed.
You like fat girls Nelson. Says something about you
would you prefer a more vile nickname?
Bernie is the progressive version of Trump. A bully. A lot like Diamond and Nelson. Bernie’s never had a real job before being elected
Drinky is correct about the Bern, the only job he was able to hold is in politics. The man couldn’t make in private business. He once tried his hand as a Carpenter but couldn’t drive a nail straight. In political positions, he was the typical loud mouth socialist espousing Marxist ideology he learned from his professors in college. When I hear Bernie speak, he sounds like drug dependent hippie from the 1960’s who thinks the world is unfair because he can’t get off his ass and work.
Those of you who are voting for Hillary puzzle me. She is a proven liar and was an ineffective Secretary of State and Senator. Her integrity is in the toilet and can’t be trusted with the nation’s secrets. You really have to dig deep into the barrel to find as poor a credentialed candidate as her. I really don’t understand the fascination people have with her. I admit that Bill was a reasonable president, aside from his philandering, but Hillary doesn’t equal Bill. Besides, Hillary wants to carry on the legacy of Obama. Who want another four years of that?
Bob — I’d be delighted if she carried another four years of a president who did remarkable work in spite of complete Republican obstruction.
Dan, I guess our standards of what defines remarkable work are different. I think Obamacare was a horrific mistake. All the evidence is showing that it is in the beginning stages of collapse as evidenced by the rapidly rising deductibles and high premiums for all who are enrolled in it and for those who have private insurance outside the exchanges. I also see the Iran nuclear deal as a monumental failure with no teeth in it as evidenced by Iran’s 3rd missile test in violation of the agreement and no action has been taken against Iran for it’s violations. I could go on citing one failure after another in this administration but I’ll leave it at that only to say that we can agree to disagree.
California is in horrible shape since Jerry “Moonbeam” Brown has taken office. The unfunded public employees pension liability has reached approx. 400 billion dollars and nobody in Sacramento wants to address pension reform in any significant way. The public employees unions have a huge amount of influence in the state capitol and are not about to loose the power they maintain in the legislature. They buy influence by contributing heavily to Democratic campaigns. The unions realize the state constitution requires the taxpayer to pick up the tab for any shortages in the pension funds. This affects not only Republicans in the state but also Democrats. In fact, it will disproportionately affect Democrats more than Republicans as many of the poorer citizens of the state tend to be Democrats and they will be hit the hardest.