This came in from the Michele Martinez campaign for AD-69, so like the poll released by Tom Daly, take these numbers with a grain of salt. We’ll note the care taking to show how Julio Perez has no chance even though he leads in money raised and in the sheer number of endorsements.
According to our recent survey, the race for the top two spots in the Assembly District 69 primary is wide open. Democrats Tom Daly and Michele Martinez and Republican José Moreno lead the pack, as shown in the figure below and two of these three are likely to be on the November ballot.
Martinez stands an outstanding chance of making the top two. She already leads all candidates among Latinos and leads the next strongest Latino Democratic candidate, Julio Perez, by 16 points. She leads all candidates in Santa Ana – home to 60% of likely voters. Martinez is also likely to benefit disproportionately from the fact that Democratic women are among the most undecided subgroups in the district initially.
When voters were read profiles of the three major Democrats and a shorter profile of Republican Moreno, Martinez moved into the lead. AD 69 Votes Initial Vote Vote After Profiles Tom Daly 20% 21% José “Joe” Moreno 14% 18% Michele Martinez 12% 25% Julio Perez 5% 6% Francisco “Paco” Barragan 1% 1% Undecided 48% 29% Martinez’s strong vote gain goes beyond her Latino, Santa Ana base.
Among women district-wide, Martinez opens up a 17-point lead over the next strongest candidate on the post-profile vote and she triples her support among Anglos. While Daly’s initial lead is noteworthy, he shows little strength considering he is a countywide elected official and former Anaheim Mayor. Well more than half of voters (57%) district-wide are unfamiliar with Daly, as are nearly half (46%) of voters in his hometown. In fact, his vote in Anaheim is 39%, which is nearly identical to his favorability rating in the city (44%), indicating that he may already have fully capitalized on the easy vote in his geographical base.
Moreno clearly benefits from his positioning as the sole Republican among four Democrats, but he is having trouble consolidating his base. He leads among Republicans, but only with 31% of the vote. Republicans give nearly as many of their votes to the four Democrats – 25%.
Julio Perez is unknown, has no base and will have an uphill climb into the top two. Should Martinez prove successful in making the November general election, she will be formidable. The electorate in November will be more Democratic, more Latino and younger than the likely June electorate among whom this survey was conducted. These factors will work in Martinez’s favor.
Methodology Note Between March 25 and 26, 2012, Global Strategy Group conducted a telephone survey of 400 voters in California’s 69th Assembly District who are likely to vote in the June 2012 primary election. The estimation error associated with a sample of 400 is 4.9% at the 95% confidence interval. Note that special care was taken to ensure the geographic and demographic divisions of the actual electorate are properly represented.
We know there are two other polls underway but we haven’t heard any word on any idependent polls.
It should be noted that this survey was to 400 former or presently gang affiliated voters.
Respondents were read profiles of the candidates? Well, who wrote those profiles, and what did they say? This thing stinks as much as the Daly “poll.”
My guess is that the description of Julio included the term “union hack.” All of this is embarrassing for the polling profession, but it’ll be over soon enough. I think that Republicans will put Daly through into the runoff against Julio. Then we’ll see what Michele and Pulido etc. are made of.
The unassisted numbers are probably not far off. Daly and Martinez hold elective office, Daly for many years. Perez hasn’t held office, isn’t well known outside of activist circles. Of course, the grain of salt remark holds true of the assisted figues since we don’t know how each person was described.
Polling figures are just a snapshot in time, in this case before the labor and business carpet bombing in Mayo. Trying to prognosticate may be interesting but is certainly speculative.
So is Jose Moreno “over and out” in this race because of his apparent disqualification due to the Hatch Act?