A recent poll for AD-69 was leaked around mid week and while it represents the first such polling in the hotly contested AD-69 race, we’re skeptical of the results. The poll from David Binder Research shows a dead heat between OC Clerk Recorder Tom Daly and Republican Robert Hammond. This is a district that is overwhelmingly Democratic and Latino which should raise red flags for anyone.
Before running the story, we’ve sought comment from Tom Daly’s campaign as well as the campaign of Julio Perez (Michele Martinez no longer speaks with any members of the press who have written anything unflattering about her despite her repeated claims she’ll talk to anyone, but we invite her campaign to comment below). We have not reached out to Francisco Barragan or Mr. Hammond for comment.
The Poll, conducted in mid-February, shows Daly and Hammond in a 25 percent tie. The memo releasing the results is light on details. Only 400 registered voters in the district were queried. There is no geographical breakdown of what percentage of voters are in Santa Ana or Anaheim. No statistics on age, gender, or ethnic origin. Its not clear if the poll was conducted in English, Spanish, or Vietnamese.
But its pretty obvious from the text that this memorandum is a push poll conducted for Tom Daly. From the note:
2010 AD 69 Primary Preference
Tom Daly (D) 25%
Michele Martinez (D) 13%
Julio Perez (D) 4%
Francisco Barragan (D) 5%
Robert Hammond (R) 25%
Undecided 28%
A survey conducted among voters in the new Assembly District 69, among those likely to participate in the June 2012 primary election, shows Orange County Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly with a significant lead over his Democratic competition.
In a simulated primary election race, Daly has a nearly 2 to 1 lead over his closest Democratic opponent. Only Robert Hammond, a Republican, has similar support. A Democrat will be favored to win the general election as the district has a nearly 2 to 1 Democratic registration advantage.
In the ballot test, Daly receives 25% of the vote, while Michele Martinez receives 13%, Julio Perez receives 4%, Francisco Barragan receives 5%, and Robert Hammond receives 25%.
Daly is the only Democratic candidate who receives notable support among all parties.
In a simulated race, Daly receives 30% of Democrats, 18% of Republicans and 30% of Independents. Martinez receives 21% of Democrats, 1% of Republicans and 17% of Independents while Perez receives 7% of Democrats, 3% of Independents and no Republican support.
And when voters hear more about the background, experience, qualifications and accomplishments of Daly, they react very positively. Daly’s initial positive sentiment of 35% moves to 80% after voters hear a short paragraph providing these basic facts.
As the campaign commences and voters begin to focus on the candidates for State Assembly, this survey shows that Daly, with his experience as the Orange County Clerk-Recorder and as former Mayor of Anaheim, is in a strong position to win this contest.
We called the research company today and we haven’t heard from anyone by the 1 PM deadline we extended them. The Daly camp has had more than 48 hours to respond and we haven’t heard from them. The poll seems to evangelize Daly’s candidacy but did they ask the same sort of questions about Hammond who scored the same percentage as Daly? What about hyping a Martinez, Perez, Barragan pro-Latino troika? Nothing about that either.
The bottom line — it’s an unscientific poll with a questionable sampling which is more tied to candidate name recognition than actual support. It’s been shopped around for a few days and published in the blogsphere without any critical analysis. The folks at David Binder Research ought to be embarrassed by this shoddy work and the Daly campaign ought to be embarrassed for paying for this poll.
A push poll isn’t the best indication of true support. It comes down to money, feet on the street, organization, and endorsements — none of which Hammond has even though he is essentially tied with Daly. My favorite measure of who’s the leading candidate is how they perform during debates. So far, there is no debate we’re aware of for these candidates and the ability to think on your feet, react to questions and express views with eloquence and clarity are clearly ways candidates are going to separate themselves from the pack. Having spoken personally before with everyone but Hammond, I have an idea which candidates will thrive and which ones will struggle during a debate.
As far as this February poll goes, the best thing I can say about it is that it’s the only poll out there. Just don’t read too much into the numbers without more context.
We welcome polls as they come in, but the more detail the better.
Right now, with no real advertising done by any of the candidates at all, these numbers do make sense if you think about it. Taken together, the Democrats all add up to 47%, and of course Hammond’s numbers are going to be strong since all of the Republicans are going to coalesce around the one (R) on the ballot. He’s most likely going to come in first or second place due to the fracturing of the Democratic vote and the excitement surrounding the Republican primaries (where all the media attention is now). The district is still 30% GOP.
Also, almost 30% of the vote is undecided, which also makes sense for a local assembly election with no advertising (there’s probably a lot of Demcorats in that mix).
Any candidate with a message that resonates and money to spend can change this outcome easily, I’d be much more interested to see what polling will look like in April or May.
One of my friends got polled…a White Republican. The call lasted only 2 minutes. And the whole 2 minutes was basically the caller talking about Daly. Doesn’t sound like a real poll. But when you’re desperate…
You’re right about most of this (as is your previous commenter), Dan, except for one thing: neither Binder nor Daly has anything to be ashamed of. This is not presented as an actual measure of what is likely to happen in June; it is basically a transparent political advertisement offered only to bait the hook that the Republican (judging from the free ads he gives out) blogger Art Pedroza eagerly snapped up: as a reason for people to call for Julio Perez to get out of the race.
That’s all that these people want: for Julio not to get into the runoff. They could live with anyone else, even Hammond, but not a pro-Labor good government reformer.
The news to me is that it was shopped around mid-week — it did not, need I even confirm, get shopped around to me or (so far as I know) Vern over at Orange Juice — and the most interesting aspect of that is that it was eventually published in the Republican blog, which gave it highly favorable play. That tells you who Daly considers to be his actual base — and who Republicans consider to be their actual candidate.
So far as competition between blogs goes, all I can say is that my coverage is funnier: http://www.orangejuiceblog.com/2012/03/pretty-fly-for-a-couple-white-guys-gop-luvs-daly-no-name-in-ad-69/
I got a copy of this Wednesday Greg but was out of town and slammed. I’ll note the ignorance of the in town blogger who doesn’t understand what constitutes libel. Shoddy work is proven by the 2010 title on the survey. That is an embarrassment.
I wasn’t going for funny Greg, and I enjoyed your post. But it doesn’t top the unintentional hilarity of the most successful Latino blogger ever’s coverage of this race; repeat a lie often enough and it’s still a lie.
First and most impotent I want to say thanks to the Santana Police who got my bike back after it was stoled. They progressively worked together to find my stoled bike.
I also agree that if everyone drops out of this race then I have a chance of winning. It’s impotent that all the guys progressively work together to drop out so I have a chance to win.
Greg Diamond’s assesment of the poll is correct. The poll was fabricated as strategy to affect negatively votes for Julio Perez.
The strategy is to scare Hispanics votes away from Perez arguing that Perez splits the Hispanic vote allowing Daly and Hammond to then be the final candidates for the office. This will be the argument taken to the Hispanic community.
Those responsible for the fabricated poll are setting Daly and Hammond as straw men.
This argument/strategy only works with a poll as the fabricated one in question.