I paid a visit to Senate candidate Chuck DeVore’s site hoping for an update on his fundraising efforts. There was a link to a recent New York Times article that I missed, so I clicked the link from Chuck’s web page. It was excerpted; nothing wrong with that mind you.Â
Here’s what the story, from his site, said:
Assemblyman DeVore mentions in the New York Times
Excerpt from an article by Colin Sullivan in the New York Times
“DeVore also senses opportunity in the climate fight. The assemblyman blames policies like A.B. 32 for driving manufacturing jobs out of California and doing little to cut greenhouse gases worldwide given the reluctance of developing nations like China and India to go along.
In an interview, DeVore said he intends to make Boxer’s climate leadership a prominent theme of his campaign. He says that leadership has helped push the state to the brink of insolvency.
“I believe that in next year’s political environment, especially in California, where Boxer for the first time will be running in an environment with a very bad economy and Democrats in control, I think she’ll be very hard pressed to justify measures she pushed that would increase the cost of energy,” he said.
And the lack of name recognition?
“I’m not a celebrity, I’m not a millionaire,” DeVore said. “But if you run against an incumbent, it’s always a referendum on the incumbent.”
Delightful. Wow, a real David and Goliath story, right? Not so fast. Here’s more of the story that Chuck left out. More after the juimp:
“Into that void has jumped just one GOP contender — California State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore — with name recognition so poor a recent poll found 82 percent of the electorate and 80 percent of Republicans have no opinion of the man. Another possible contender, former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, is fighting breast cancer and won’t decide on her candidacy until she completes chemotherapy treatment this summer.
…
One of Boxer’s key strategies for fending off interested challengers has been to raise money early in the cycle. As of March 31, the Boxer campaign had $4.6 million on hand, to a paltry $350,000 raised by DeVore at press time.
Fiorina, if she runs, could potentially match Boxer financially from her own deep pockets. As for the governor, Schwarzenegger once had the star power to match Boxer’s draw, but apparently he lacks the will following several years of bruising budget fights in Sacramento.
The polls are also leaning heavily in Boxer’s favor. The Field Poll in early March found Boxer leading Schwarzenegger 54 to 30 percent, up from an October 2007 survey from the same polling firm that had Boxer trailing, 43 to 44 percent.
Against Fiorina, the numbers are even better for the incumbent. Boxer lead Fiorina 55 percent to 25 percent in the March Field Poll.
And the polls showed even dimmer prospects for DeVore. The Field Poll, which did not bother to run DeVore against Boxer head-to-head, found that the Central Valley lawmaker would struggle to get the GOP nomination, drawing 9 percent in a field that includes Fiorina and Schwarzenegger, and 19 percent against Fiorina.
All of which has Democratic strategists in the Golden State nonplused about the Senate race, especially in a matchup with DeVore, who is seen as a conservative not likely to appeal to California’s liberal mainstream.
“There’s just no bench,” said Bill Carrick, a Democratic strategist, of the GOP contenders. “She’s in very good political shape.”
There’s some standard Republican rebuttal you can read by clicking the link. Fiorina might sit this one out, thought she’s clearly more electable than Chuck is in a race against Boxer.Â
Matt Cunningham reminds us its all about numbers, and California still has significantly more Democrats and left-leaning DTS registered voters that aren’t enough for conservatives and libertarians to overcome.Â
Barring a Boxer meltdown, the only really remaining questions are: will DeVore get past a primary challenge? And, how badly will the Republican candidate get thumped by a grandmother?