To start off, I do believe Derek Tran has an excellent chance of beating Rep. Michelle Steel in November for the 45th Congressional District. There’s plenty of evidence in repeated attacks from Steel’s campaign over statements Tran has made about his opponent and Steel has a giant orange Albatross around her neck in the GOP likely presidential nominee, 34-time convicted felon Donald Trump. I’m sure the Steel’s had a nice time networking with high-worth Republicans in Newport Beach this weekend.
As he did with pre-primary polls from the Joanna Weiss campaign, OJ blogger Vern Nelson was over the top about the current poll that shows a dead heat for the CA-45 race in November. And the numbers get even better for Tran when pointed questions/answers are offered on both candidates for the race.
Here’s what the Tran campaign left out of their announcement (printed below). They paid for the survey. If you believed Weiss’s paid survey, she’s be running against Baugh now instead of State Senator Dave Min.
Even though the survey is paid by the Tran campaign, I do believe the data in the first graphic showing a one point difference that’s within the margin of error. And for ther Tran campaign, congratulations on getting the right-wing Washington Examiner and Politico to report on this poll without revealing its not independent. Do read the story in Politico about the fireworks between both campaigns.
And I’m certain the poll numbers showing a huge gap where tran overtakes Steel are accurate, but it’s all in how you ask the questions. I have no doubt Steel will do similar polling too with a MAGA bent to the numbers. But for honestly’s sake, campaigns need to tell voters if the polls they issue breathless news releases about are commissioned or independent.
That didn’t happen here.
Money is going to make a huge factor in this race. Tran has about $200K on hand while Steel has close to $3 million. Its amazing this race is so close when you consider the hugh gap in campaign funds.
NEW POLLING: Derek Tran In Dead Heat With Michelle Steel In CA-45
Tran Positioned To Flip Red To Blue Congressional District
Garden Grove, CA — As the 2024 congressional race heats up in California’s 45th District, new polling shows Democratic nominee, Army veteran, workers’ rights advocate, and small business owner Derek Tran in a dead heat with incumbent Republican Michelle Steel this November – before voters hear a single message about Tran. Tulchin Research’s new poll highlights an extremely tight race, with Tran already statistically tied with Steel. Strong polling data, Tran’s unique appeal among key voter demographics, including both Latino and Vietnamese voters, and Steel’s serious liabilities all point to one conclusion: Derek Tran is well-positioned to flip this seat in November.
A Tulchin Research poll of 600 likely November voters conducted May 23-June 2 shows Tran in a statistical dead heat on the initial ballot ask, with Tran garnering 41% of the vote compared to Steel’s 42%, with 17% undecided. Tran’s personal story as the son of Vietnamese refugees strongly resonates in this district, which boasts the largest population of Vietnamese in the country, helping him significantly outperform past Democratic candidates with a group that Democrats have significantly struggled to win.
The poll further shows Tran’s ability to win over voters once they learn more about him and his opponent. After receiving additional information about both candidates, Tran’s support jumps to 52%, while Steel’s falls to 39%, with just 9% of voters still undecided.
A deeper look at the 2024 primary results reveals more problems for Michelle Steel. Her primary vote share in 2024 was 2 percentage points lower than in 2022, even though the electorate was 3 points more Republican. This net 5-point drop-off suggests a weakening support base for Steel. Additionally, the 2024 general electorate is projected to be nearly 10 points less Republican than the primary electorate.
“The data shows that voters are fed up with Michelle Steel’s record of corruption and voting to restrict women’s reproductive rights,” said Tran spokesman Orrin Evans. “Army veteran Derek Tran, the son of Vietnamese refugees, is ready to flip this seat and get to work for Southern California families.”
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California’s 45th is a Congressional District representing portions of Orange and Los Angeles Counties in Southern California. A majority-minority district, the District has the second largest AAPI population (36.97%) of any Congressional District, and the largest Vietnamese community in the country. President Biden won the current district lines by +6 points and it has a +6 point Democratic registration advantage. It includes all or part of the Cities of Garden Grove, Westminster, Cerritos, Buena Park, Placentia, Hawaiian Gardens, Cypress, Fountain Valley, Artesia, Los Alamitos, La Palma, Brea, Lakewood, and Fullerton, as well as the unincorporated community of Rossmoor.
The DCCC has endorsed Derek Tran as part of its “Red To Blue” program.
Use of Derek Tran’s military rank, job titles, and photographs in uniform does not imply endorsement by the Dept. of Defense or U.S. Army.
I wonder if the Orange Juice Blog got paid for this “Ad”?
I am worried that Mr. Tran is going to learn the HARD WAY (and at the expense of a Democratic congress) what past suportee’s of Vern Nelson and The Orange Juice Blog learned.
November is a long way off. Michelle beat Harley, in part to his relationship with Vern’s buddy, Victor Valledares.
What are traditional (Catholic) Viet voters going to say when se floats “SUCK MY C%CK, I’M DRUNK” ad’s against Tran?
It is beyond comprehension how a congressional candidate (and our local party chair) associate with the likes of Vern Nelson. Did anyone catch him singing a Disney song at city Council. How in the world can anyone take this man seriously? He clearly suffers from some sort of mental illness.
he’s an alcoholic; he forgets when people tell him things in confidence. He openly wonders why people who used to talk with him no longer do. Because he is unable to keep a secret
Well, certainly not after this weekends USPS delivery.
Funny, if you look at the postmark. Pretty sure it’s the Post Office close to Greg Diamonds new subsidized apartment. Might the crazy guy looking for hits for AD revenue????
Last I cheeked Greg Diamond, Vern Nelson, Dave Zenger and the other contributors at the OJB are all UNEMPLOYED! But hey, somebodies got to make a living off of us working folks.
VERN AND DONNA NELSON LIVE IN A 600SQFT apartment that he commandeered.
56 comments by me and others have been “trashed” by Vern and Greg
That’s their right running an independent blog. BUT, the content of such posts suggest censorship, favoritism and graft.
I hope Greg’s public assistance can stave off a SALVO of legal requests….filed in West Virgina. That’s an expensive greyhound ride…
I wonder if the Orange Juice Blog got paid for this “Ad”?
I am worried that Mr. Tran is going to learn the HARD WAY (and at the expense of a Democratic congress) what past suportee’s of Vern Nelson and The Orange Juice Blog learned.
November is a long way off. Michelle beat Harley, in part to his relationship with Vern’s buddy, Victor Valledares.
What are traditional (Catholic) Viet voters going to say when se floats “SUCK MY C%CK, I’M DRUNK” ad’s against Tran?
It is beyond comprehension how a congressional candidate (and our local party chair) associate with the likes of Vern Nelson. Did anyone catch him singing a Disney song at city Council. How in the world can anyone take this man seriously? He clearly suffers from some sort of mental illness.
he’s an alcoholic; he forgets when people tell him things in confidence. He openly wonders why people who used to talk with him no longer do. Because he is unable to keep a secret
Our party chair does not associate with him
Well, certainly not after this weekends USPS delivery.
Funny, if you look at the postmark. Pretty sure it’s the Post Office close to Greg Diamonds new subsidized apartment. Might the crazy guy looking for hits for AD revenue????
Last I cheeked Greg Diamond, Vern Nelson, Dave Zenger and the other contributors at the OJB are all UNEMPLOYED! But hey, somebodies got to make a living off of us working folks.
VERN AND DONNA NELSON LIVE IN A 600SQFT apartment that he commandeered.
CHECK OUT VERN’S CHECKERED PAST.
56 comments by me and others have been “trashed” by Vern and Greg
That’s their right running an independent blog. BUT, the content of such posts suggest censorship, favoritism and graft.
I hope Greg’s public assistance can stave off a SALVO of legal requests….filed in West Virgina. That’s an expensive greyhound ride…