Reality Checking the New Weiss Poll on CA-47

You’re a political candidate running in second place behind a candidate with more organically-raised money and no personal loans to the campaign.  Your opponent has the vast majority of endorsements from key local political leaders, labor unions, and got the state party’s official endorsement for the office you seek.

What do you do?

In the case of CA-47 candidate Joanna Weiss, you have your political consultants craft a poll that shows she leads the race for Congress in CA-47 and you issue the news in the middle of the convention.  TheLiberalOC is about to be the second media outlet to publish this news of the Weiss poll on CA-47.  Unfortunately, the protests at the convention is what everyone is covering. But dammit, this poll and its results are your next fundraising note.

We’ve reached out to Weiss for Congress campaign manager Emma Weinert a few times for clarity on questions weeks ago, but she doesn’t communicate anything back to us.  A bit of advice for her from someone who’s been doing PR work since before she was born.  If you don’t talk to the press about your client, they will talk to everyone else.  And I mean everyone.  And it’s bad form to be the media contact for a press release while quoting yourself.

Here’s the release:

NEW POLL:

Joanna Weiss Is Democrats’ Only Chance to Keep CA-47 Blue

New Poll Confirms that Min Can’t Win

ORANGE COUNTY, CA – Today the Joanna Weiss for Congress campaign released a new poll confirming that she is the strongest general election candidate to take on likely Republican nominee Scott Baugh in November 2024. In a head-to-head general election match up, Weiss bests Baugh, while State Senator Dave Min proves to be an incredibly weak candidate whose recent DUI conviction is deeply concerning to a vast majority of general election voters. Voters are also very troubled by the fact that Min campaigned on a no corporate PAC pledge, and then once in office, accepted over $150,000 dollars in special interest money.

“Candidate quality matters. The poll demonstrates that Orange County voters choose Joanna Weiss’ grassroots leadership in the community over Dave Min’s longtime record of problematic judgment,” said campaign manager Emma Weinert. “Next November, we must defeat Baugh, a MAGA extremist with a criminal history who refuses to acknowledge that Joe Biden was the legitimate winner of the 2020 election and who supports a national abortion ban. The poll confirms what we have known, that Dave Min can’t win in the primary or the general election. With so much on the line, there is only one leader who will beat back Republican extremism this election — and that’s Joanna Weiss.”

KEY FINDINGS: 

• Weiss leads Baugh in a general election match up, while Min trails him.
• When voters learn about Min’s damaging record, Baugh beats Min by 12 points.
• Min’s DUI raises “major doubts” for 66 percent of general election voters, including 71 percent of No Party Preference voters who are likely to decide the fate of the election.
• Min’s lie about not accepting corporate PAC money raises “major doubts” for 60 percent of voters.

Community organizer and attorney Joanna Weiss has built a broad coalition of support across Orange County and California, earning endorsements from Representatives Linda Sánchez, Eric Swalwell, Julia Brownley, Sydney Kamlager-Dove, and former Representative Harley Rouda. She also has earned endorsements from EMILYs List, Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis, Controller Malia Cohen, Assemblywoman Cottie Petrie-Norris, OC Supervisor Katrina Foley, Orange County Young Democrats, and grassroots leaders throughout the district. Weiss is on the consent calendar to earn the endorsement of the California Young Democrats at their endorsing Convention this weekend.

Weiss has raised over $1.3 million to date. She also has both the most cash on hand and more grassroots donors than her primary opponent. Based upon a recent FEC press release, Weiss is the top nonincumbent woman fundraiser in the country for a House seat in the 2024 election cycle.

###

Joanna is a former litigator and Adjunct Professor at Chapman University School of Law where she taught courses on Pre-Trial Civil Procedure and Public Interest Lawyering. Joanna served on the Board of Directors of the Public Law Center for over a decade, winning multiple awards for her legal and community leadership.

As founder of Women for American Values and Ethics (WAVE), Joanna has activated over 2,300 community members to contribute over 50,000 volunteer hours, register over 10,000 students, and raise millions to support candidates and causes in Orange County, CA.

Born and raised in Orange County, Joanna attended Capistrano Valley High School and Saddleback College, graduated from UCLA, and received her JD from USC School of Law. Joanna and her husband Jason love to surf, hike, and volunteer with their three children Leah, Will, and Audrey.

*********

Now when you commission a poll, you get the results you want based on the questions that get asked.  Min has commissioned polls as has Baugh in other elections.  The new poll from Weiss is not an independent poll at all.

A Min supporter saved a copy of the poll questions and sent it to us as a PDF (so there are some Min votes on it).

You can read it here. Weiss poll

As in most polls, there’s a question, followed by a list of candidates and a grid of how much you like them or hate them.  First Question is the list of names that starts with Katie Porter, includes President Biden, Donald Trump, Weiss, Min and Baugh.  The second asks which CA-47 candidate you’ll vote for or if you’re undecided.  The third question is a straight yes or no on Scott Baugh, followed by an up or down vote for Weiss, followed by an up or down on Weiss or Baugh, no Min.  Next question is an up or down on Baugh vs. Min.

The next question is straight Weiss – will you vote for “…a lifetime organizer with a real record of standing up for their community, small businessowner, runs towards problems not away from them, voter rights advocate, will stand up to extremist politicians, non-profit president, mother (no father? Do fathers matter?), works for people in their community, not themselves.

The next sets of questions are candidate profiles with a yes or no.  Starts with Baugh, then Min (and the profile is actually positive). Weiss’s profile is actually a full-on attack of her against Baugh.  This is followed by a “who are you voting for” question, which are then followed by five glowingly positive statements about Weiss herself.  I’m touched by the fact she once worked as a waitress to make ends meet. But more importantly here, Weiss is not hit with any negative statements, only positive ones.

Following this setoff positive statements about Weiss, the poll then makes three negative statements about Min. The DUI arrest in May is prominently featured “guaranteeing” if Min is on the ballot, this seat goes to the GOP.   There’s reference to Min’s work as a UCI Law professor who advised a conservative student organization suggesting Min isn’t a “true” Democrat.  Former UCI Law School Chair Erwin Chemerinsky smacked down this argument earlier in the campaign as a horrible argument against Min’s work at UCI. As Weiss is also a lawyer, this question is “weak sauce.” It’s worth noting the poll does not read any positive statements about Min other than his earlier bio paragraph, only negative ones

While the Weiss campaign is trying to make this poll about Min’s negatives, that’s not actually what their poll tests.  The poll incorporates three very different lines of attack on Min, with zero positive messages, and asking voters what they think after that.  .  You only go negative when your positives aren’t going higher.

The last set of questions is all about who are you voting for.

Some clarity here:

First, the poll itself was conducted by Global Strategies Group but the polling memo was written by the Weiss Campaign and the poll was designed to reach a certain outcome.

There’s a weird “ad test” that shows Min’s DUI moves voters against him. But its true purpose is to support the poll’s preferred outcome.  The test was done under the direction of the Weiss campaign’s political consultants, Bearstar Strategies, who also wrote the memo.  Min is the target here, not Baugh, because you gotta make some news while your principal party opponent is getting the official state party endorsement and still has the endorsement of the very popular Katie Porter.

Here’s what’s missing from the poll and the press release promoting the poll:

• No mention that Weiss has loaned her campaign $225,000 and is essentially tied with Min in fundraising
• No mention that Weiss campaign’s most “cash on hand” is only a $7,100.00 difference
• No mention that Weiss lives about 14 miles outside the district. Would voters in the district want to be represented by someone who doesn’t live in the district and hasn’t for eight years?
• The poll says Min took a pledge not to accept PAC money for his Congressional race and then did. Min didn’t take a dime in PAC money for his 2018 Congressional race.  He did not make the same promise for his 2020 State Senate race and did accept some PAC money (as most in the State Legislature do) but the Weiss campaign is adding labor union donations to the PAC contributions to get to the $150,000 number.

As the Weiss campaign’s favorite political blog seems to be our pals at the Orange Juice Blog, Vern Nelson had this response to the Poll in a blogpost over the weekend:

So, Vern here again. I’m no expert on polls but this “checks out” I think. If we’re not hearing a bunch of Republican attacks on “DUI Dave” right now, that’s only because they HOPE he’ll be the Democrat to make it through the March primary – and THAT’S when CA-47 voters will have it beat into their heads so tiresomely that THEY’LL feel like pulling over and stumbling home in the dark.

Joanna’s biggest weakness, which is that she lives a few miles outside the district in San Juan Capistrano, doesn’t approach that level of toxicity. Of course, I also like Joanna’s politics better and find her more honest. She is currently looking for a home in the district, even though it’s not necessary for Congress. And technically that will make her a “carpetbagger.” But there are so many degrees of carpetbagging, this being on the least offensive rung, as:

• She has worked and lived in that Huntington-Newport district for years.
• Moving there unnecessarily for this race, I think, shows respect to the district.
• If it’s true that only she can beat Scott Baugh, which I believe, then the 47th District NEEDS her.
• Finally, how can the Party of Michelle Steel and Young Kim, who don’t even pretend to inhabit their districts, use residency as a cudgel?

Last concern: It’s been bruited about by the Min-pologists at the Liberal OC – mostly anonymous ones of course – that Joanna refused to pledge to support whichever Democrat makes it through the March primary. Yeah, I know, consider the source, but I thought I should check and straighten out the record. Well, Joanna, at the time in question, was answering whether she would pledge to support the choice of the state party straw poll, which was a kind of lame thing to ask of her.

She confirms that OF COURSE she will support Min over Baugh if Dave beat her in March.

I have to wonder if Vern pounded this out after having a few drinks:

• OJ blog publisher Vern Nelson has been convicted of five DUIs (both felonies and misdemeanors) dating back to 1999 (Downey, Santa Clarita, Anaheim) so for him to declare Min as “DUI Dave” is sad and funny at the same time.
• Weiss lives about 14 miles outside the district and has since 2015. The Orange Juice Blog once paid for signs in Anaheim calling Jordan Brandman a “Disney Carpetbagger” for moving to run in a different district in the same city he lived and that was clearly toxic.  Find a standard on carpetbagging that works for you Vern.
• Vern reports Weiss is “currently looking for a home in the district.” Which is what Weiss told members of the DPOC Central Committee last Spring. And then the move was going to happen “in the summer.” Then October.  Thanksgiving is Thursday.
• If Weiss does move into the district, it will be a “Mimi Walters” move where she rents an apartment. She’ll register to vote there but will probably reside mostly at her 5,000 square foot/$3.5 million house in San Juan Capistrano on an acre of land. I’m glad she and her family have done so well.
• Sources tell me the Weiss’s have taken out a $400,000 home equity line of credit on their San Juan Capistrano residence which is probably where the loan money for the campaign is coming from.
• Lastly, Vern seems to be quoting Weiss about the questions asked of her at the Costa Mesa Democratic Club. And he’s wrong.  The question was witnessed by the entire club board and I have six club members who confirm that she failed to raise her hand if she’d support the candidate who won the March primary.  There are audible gasps on the audio recording when the question was asked and the moderator herself made a comment about a “difference of opinion.”

If the Weiss campaign would actually return a phone call, email or text message, I’d ask about the following issues:

What are the numbers and details on the poll results?  How many respondents were included in the final result? Are they voters in the district? What is the demographic make up of those polled?  Age, gender, city location, party affiliation? When was the poll conducted?

The Weiss campaign is warning that the Baugh campaign will use Min’s DUI to attack him.  Why is she using this same issue?  Could she address specific policy differences she has with Min and Baugh? Nope. She’s campaigning on his DUI.

Weiss told a campaign supporter the move to San Juan Capistrano (in 2015) was to “shorten a commute” without specifying which commute.  It was a commute to St. Margaret’s, an elite private school in which all three of Weiss’s kids attended.  The tuition and fees for a high school student there is now over $43,000 a year.  UCI costs less.  I have no idea what years her kids were enrolled and I’m sure tuition was less then, but still pricey.  A parent with two kids at the school now has told me they did not get a tuition break for having multiple kids enrolled at the same time. But it begs the question, does Weiss support quality public education?  When she resided in Corona Del Mar, the elementary and middle/high schools in CDM rank among the top 3% of public-school systems in country.  Not good enough?

Fully half of Irvine’s renters pay the high cost of rent in Irvine in order to send their kids to IUSD schools.  I know.  I coached those kids and know the sacrifices those families made to send those kids to Irvine schools.  Min’s kids go to IUSD schools.  Weren’t the schools in CDM good enough?  I can’t fault her for wanting her kids to have the best education possible, but would she have taken a voucher for private school education if they were available?

On Weiss’s canvassing literature, there’s a claim that she “marched and fasted” with United Farm Workers legend Cesar Chavez.  That’s impressive, given that Chavez’s last march and fast was 1988 in Delano.

From the UFW webpage: “Cesar was willing to sacrifice his own life so that the union would continue and that violence was not used. Cesar fasted many times. In 1968 Cesar went on a water only, 25 days fast. He repeated the fast in 1972 for 24 days, and again in 1988, this time for 36 days. What motivated him to do this? He said, Farm workers everywhere are angry and worried that we cannot win without violence. We have proved it before through persistence, hard work, faith and willingness to sacrifice. We can win and keep our own self-respect and build a great union that will secure the spirit of all people if we do it through a rededication and recommitment to the struggle for justice through nonviolence.”

His last fast was just before his death in 1993, but there was no march.

Weiss, born in 1972, would have been 15 or 16 at the time of he Delano march.  Did she actually make the trip to Delano to march and fast, or did she participate in programs active in high schools throughout California then where students fast in the morning but still have lunch that afternoon?  These fasts were part of school district efforts to teach nonviolence through a grant provided by the California Department of Education and the attorney general’s office. Which was it?

So, when manufacturing news, it’s best for any campaign to use an independent source or pollster to have them develop the questions and conduct the poll.  And you can report the numbers or use the information gathered to make changes in campaign messaging without publicizing the results.  The numbers and data are more credible then.  This poll from the Weiss campaign is not.