3 to 7…we win this one.

(Hello & happy holidays from Arizona)

A few weeks ago I wrote this post where I said that I think the first victory in the 1st District Supervisor’s race could be claimed at 5 p.m. on December 26 when we see how many Dems and how many Reps enter the race.

We all know why it is in our best interest if a bunch of Reps. enter the race, but I think that something more important is happening here. There is a smaller race; there is a race to see which political party in this county can refine their message, organize their troops and run the fewest candidates.

So we won this one.

I don’t think that this small victory means absolute success for a Democrat in February, and I also know that the win that really matters is the one in February, but I can’t imagine a scenario where the 3 to 7 stuff is hurting us very much.

The Democratic Party of Orange County is with it and more united in central county than the Republicans. For that reason, I’ll predict this race goes to a democrat.

Any friendly wagers?

A CORRECTION: Both Prevatt and I had assumed that since we didn’t know Larry Phan, he was a Republican.  That was dumb on our part.  So the number of Dems is actually 4, and the number of Reps is 6.  With that correction made, the main point of this post is still valid.


  1. It didn’t matter how many Democrats or Republicans were running, once Tom Umberg jumped in. The only person in the 1st Supervisorial District who could have taken on Umberg was Joe Dunn. Either way, the Dems hold the seat.

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